CAJ | 학술논문

为了减缓供应商生产运营中断对制造商带来的供应中断风险，制造商需要在突发事件前优化供应链恢复能力投资水平。引入CVaR来刻画供应链在突发事件下的应急目标，建立了一定置信水平控制下的供应链恢复能力投资的决策模型，进而揭示了制造商风险规避程度对供应链最优恢复能力投资水平的影响。分权供应链下，制造商运用基于绩效的契约来激励供应商投资合适的恢复能力，以协调供应链。结论表明，CVaR可以恰当描述供应链恢复的能力投资行为，当风险规避程度越高，供应链最优恢复能力投资越多；当单位中断时间的惩罚系数的条件期望值等于单位中断时间的商誉成本的条件期望值时，供应链进入协调状态。
위료감완공응상생산운영중단대제조상대래적공응중단풍험，제조상수요재돌발사건전우화공응련회복능력투자수평。인입CVaR래각화공응련재돌발사건하적응급목표，건립료일정치신수평공제하적공응련회복능력투자적결책모형，진이게시료제조상풍험규피정도대공응련최우회복능력투자수평적영향。분권공응련하，제조상운용기우적효적계약래격려공응상투자합괄적회복능력，이협조공응련。결론표명，CVaR가이흡당묘술공응련회복적능력투자행위，당풍험규피정도월고，공응련최우회복능력투자월다；당단위중단시간적징벌계수적조건기망치등우단위중단시간적상예성본적조건기망치시，공응련진입협조상태。
To mitigate the risk of supply disruption to the manufacturers resulting from the supplier's pro-duction interruption , the manufacturer needs to optimize the level of supply chain recovery capacity invest-ment prior to a disruption .Conditional Value-at-Risk ( CVaR ) is introduced to characterize the supply chain's operation goal under disruption .A decision-making model of supply chain recovery capacity invest-ment under certain confidence control level is established .Furthermore , the degree of the manufacture's risk aversion on the optimal level of supply chain recovery capacity investment is investigated .In a decen-tralized supply chain , the manufacturer uses the Performance-Based Contract to encourage suppliers to in-vest right recovery capacity in order to coordinate a supply chain .The results show that the CVaR criteria can describe the behavior of supply chain recovery capacity investment , the higher the degree of the manufacture's risk aversion , the more the optimal supply chain recovery capacity is .The supply chain is coordinated when the conditional expected value of penalty coefficient of unit outage time is equal to the conditional expected value of goodwill cost of unit outage time .