CAJ | 학술논문

为了有效计算气候变化和人类活动对流域水循环过程的影响，需对多因素影响贡献量进行分解。由于多因素之间相互影响，单个因素影响量之和，一般并不完全等于所有因素综合影响量，因此传统方法多用于对两个因素进行影响量分解。本文提出一种基于分布式水文模型的分解方法，用于对多个因素进行影响量分解。该方法能综合考虑不同因素之间的相互作用，使得单因素影响量之和恰好等于所有因素综合影响量，并从理论和应用两个方面对此进行论证。相比于传统方法，新方法能更加科学地分解两个及两个以上因素对水循环过程影响的贡献量，同时在基准期和变化期的选择上也更具有灵活性。该方法不仅可用于水循环演变过程中多因素贡献量分析，还可与具有物理机制的模型相结合，应用于大气、环境和生态演化过程的贡献率分析。
위료유효계산기후변화화인류활동대류역수순배과정적영향，수대다인소영향공헌량진행분해。유우다인소지간상호영향，단개인소영향량지화，일반병불완전등우소유인소종합영향량，인차전통방법다용우대량개인소진행영향량분해。본문제출일충기우분포식수문모형적분해방법，용우대다개인소진행영향량분해。해방법능종합고필불동인소지간적상호작용，사득단인소영향량지화흡호등우소유인소종합영향량，병종이론화응용량개방면대차진행론증。상비우전통방법，신방법능경가과학지분해량개급량개이상인소대수순배과정영향적공헌량，동시재기준기화변화기적선택상야경구유령활성。해방법불부가용우수순배연변과정중다인소공헌량분석，환가여구유물리궤제적모형상결합，응용우대기、배경화생태연화과정적공헌솔분석。
In order to separate the impacts of the climate change and human activities, it needs to sepa?rate the impacts of the multi-factors. When using the traditional methods to calculate the contribution of multi-factors, the sum of each factor′s contribution is not always equal to the comprehensive changes be?cause of the interrelation between each factor. Thus, most of the traditional methods focus on the two fac?tors contribution analyses. A new method, which is based on the simulation of the distributed hydrological model, is promoted to solve this problem. The new method could handle the interrelation between different factors, and assure that the sum of each factor′s contribution just equals to the total changes, which is proved theoretically and practically in this paper. Contrasting to the traditional methods, the new method could partition the contribution of more than two factors,and it is flexible to select the base period and im?pacted period. Moreover, the new method could be used in study of atmosphere, environment, ecology, and so on,as well as water cycle,combining with the physically based simulation models.