铁道学报
鐵道學報
철도학보
2014年
7期
8-15
,共8页
危险货物运输%贝叶斯网络%事故树模型%Buckley决策%风险评估
危險貨物運輸%貝葉斯網絡%事故樹模型%Buckley決策%風險評估
위험화물운수%패협사망락%사고수모형%Buckley결책%풍험평고
dangerous goods transportation%Bayesian Network%fault tree analysis (FTA)model%Buckley De-cision Making%risk assessment
基于Buckley决策方法，标定基本事件之间相对概率大小模糊权值，以此作为各基本事件的概率值；同时以事故树模型为基础，映射为贝叶斯网络；通过正、反向推理分析各基本事件的结构重要度、概率重要度、关键重要度，并对此进行排序，有效地定量评估运输过程的风险性，找出最薄弱的工作环节，有针对性地提出改进措施。对比仅采用事故树的结构重要度排序分析，本方法提高评估的可信度和客观性，对铁路危险货物运输风险评估具有一定的理性论和实际应用价值。
基于Buckley決策方法，標定基本事件之間相對概率大小模糊權值，以此作為各基本事件的概率值；同時以事故樹模型為基礎，映射為貝葉斯網絡；通過正、反嚮推理分析各基本事件的結構重要度、概率重要度、關鍵重要度，併對此進行排序，有效地定量評估運輸過程的風險性，找齣最薄弱的工作環節，有針對性地提齣改進措施。對比僅採用事故樹的結構重要度排序分析，本方法提高評估的可信度和客觀性，對鐵路危險貨物運輸風險評估具有一定的理性論和實際應用價值。
기우Buckley결책방법，표정기본사건지간상대개솔대소모호권치，이차작위각기본사건적개솔치；동시이사고수모형위기출，영사위패협사망락；통과정、반향추리분석각기본사건적결구중요도、개솔중요도、관건중요도，병대차진행배서，유효지정량평고운수과정적풍험성，조출최박약적공작배절，유침대성지제출개진조시。대비부채용사고수적결구중요도배서분석，본방법제고평고적가신도화객관성，대철로위험화물운수풍험평고구유일정적이성론화실제응용개치。
With the method of Buckley Decision Making,the fuzzy weight value of relative probability between an elementary event and another one was calibrated.The fuzzy weight value was taken as the probability of each elementary event.The FTA model was mapped into the Bayesian Network (BN).According to forward and reverse reasoning of the BN,the structural importance degree,probability importance degree and critical importance degree of each elementary event were analyzed and sorted.In the light of sequencing of the three importance degrees,risks of transportation processes can be assessed quantitatively,the weakest link of trans-portation can be identified effectively and directional measures can be taken for improvement.Compared to sor-ting only by the structural importance degree of FTA,the reliability and obj ectivity of risk assessment were greatly improved.The proposed method is of theoretical and practical values to risk assessment of railway dan-gerous goods transport.
