CAJ | 학술논문

冲击地压态势评估是煤矿安全监测预警领域的热点及难题之一。本文以微震、电磁辐射及声发射等实时监测数据为基础，将态势评估理论引入冲击地压预测领域，建立了基于监测系统日志审计与实时修正算法相结合的冲击态势评估模型，通过改进D-S证据理论提出一种冲击地压态势量化方法。利用该方法计算得到连续时段的冲击地压态势值后，分别基于一阶灰色模型GM(1,1)及 ARMA 模型对冲击地压态势值进行预测并对比分析。实例结果及相关分析表明，所提冲击地压态势预测方法合理有效，能动态地反映冲击地压的发展趋势。
충격지압태세평고시매광안전감측예경영역적열점급난제지일。본문이미진、전자복사급성발사등실시감측수거위기출，장태세평고이론인입충격지압예측영역，건립료기우감측계통일지심계여실시수정산법상결합적충격태세평고모형，통과개진D-S증거이론제출일충충격지압태세양화방법。이용해방법계산득도련속시단적충격지압태세치후，분별기우일계회색모형GM(1,1)급 ARMA 모형대충격지압태세치진행예측병대비분석。실례결과급상관분석표명，소제충격지압태세예측방법합리유효，능동태지반영충격지압적발전추세。
Rock burst situation assessment is one of the key and difficult issues in the safety monitor-ing and early warning field of coal mining. In this paper, based on real-time data from microseism, acoustic emission and electromagnetic radiation monitoring, situation assessment theory was introduced to the rock burst prediction, and a new situation assessment model of rock burst was established based on log audit of monitoring system and real-time correction algorithm. In addition, the situation quantita-tive method of rock burst was put forward by improving D-S evidence theory. Moreover, by using this method to calculate situation values in continual time points, the predictive values of rock burst situation were calculated and analyzed based on GM (1, 1) and ARMA models, respectively. Test results and re-lated analysis show that the proposed situation prediction method of rock burst is reasonable and effec-tive, and can reflect the development trend of rock burst dynamically.