CAJ | 학술논문

目的：建立有效的米饭蜡样芽孢杆菌剂量效应模型。方法调研并选用2001-2011年我国9起米饭中蜡样芽孢杆菌导致食物中毒的数据，基于指数模型、泊松模型、对数模型、威布模型等及其修正形式分别构建了米饭中蜡样芽孢杆菌剂量效应模型。结果修正的指数模型、对数概率模型和Gamma威布模型三者在拟合效果上显著优于其他模型(R2>0.70)，拟合曲线外延至低剂量预测中毒率时， Gamma威布模型低于前两者，进一步的数学检验表明， Gamma威布模型准确因子(Af=1.40)优于前两者，偏差因子(Bf)和预测标准误差(SEP)相近或略高于前两者。结论建议选用Gamma威布模型作为米饭中蜡样芽孢杆菌最优的剂量效应模型用于蜡样芽孢杆菌风险评估体系中的危害特征分析。
목적：건립유효적미반사양아포간균제량효응모형。방법조연병선용2001-2011년아국9기미반중사양아포간균도치식물중독적수거，기우지수모형、박송모형、대수모형、위포모형등급기수정형식분별구건료미반중사양아포간균제량효응모형。결과수정적지수모형、대수개솔모형화Gamma위포모형삼자재의합효과상현저우우기타모형(R2>0.70)，의합곡선외연지저제량예측중독솔시， Gamma위포모형저우전량자，진일보적수학검험표명， Gamma위포모형준학인자(Af=1.40)우우전량자，편차인자(Bf)화예측표준오차(SEP)상근혹략고우전량자。결론건의선용Gamma위포모형작위미반중사양아포간균최우적제량효응모형용우사양아포간균풍험평고체계중적위해특정분석。
Objective To establish an effective dose-response model of Bacillus cereus in cooked rice. Methods Totally 9 food poison issues during 2001~2011 in China were investigated and selected as dose-response model (DRM) data in this paper. DRMs of Bacillus cereus in cooked rice were established on the basis of Exponential, Poisson, Log, Weibull and relative modified model types, respectively. Results Mod-ified Exponential, Log-logistic and Gamma-Weibull models were better than others with adjusted R2>0.70. Moreover, compared with modified Exponential and Log-logistic models, Gamma-Weibull model proved to be with lower predictive food poison rate while extrapolating from high to low doses of B. cereus, lower ac-curacy-factor (Af) value, and similar bias-factor (Bf) and standard error prediction (SEP) values, respectively. Conclusion Gamma-Weibull model as the best one might be used to analyze the hazard characterization of B. cereus in risk assessment system in cooked rice.