CAJ | 학술논문

目的：探讨江苏省社区卫生服务物力资源的预测方法，提高社区卫生服务资源的配置水平，为江苏省慢性非传染性疾病的防治工作提供适宜物力保证。方法选用自回归移动平均（ARMA）（1，2）时间序列模型，预测江苏省2012-2018年社区卫生服务中心床位数，反映社区卫生服务物力资源的配置。结果江苏省社区床位资源时间序列预测模型ARMA （1，2）为： lgYt＝0.4059＋0.9121lgYt-1＋ut-1.9441ut-1＋0.9950 ut-2。结论时间序列方法在江苏省社区卫生服务中心床位资源预测中显示了较好的效果，预测结果可为政府落实相关慢性非传染性疾病的防治工作，制订社区床位资源配置标准提供决策参考。
목적：탐토강소성사구위생복무물력자원적예측방법，제고사구위생복무자원적배치수평，위강소성만성비전염성질병적방치공작제공괄의물력보증。방법선용자회귀이동평균（ARMA）（1，2）시간서렬모형，예측강소성2012-2018년사구위생복무중심상위수，반영사구위생복무물력자원적배치。결과강소성사구상위자원시간서렬예측모형ARMA （1，2）위： lgYt＝0.4059＋0.9121lgYt-1＋ut-1.9441ut-1＋0.9950 ut-2。결론시간서렬방법재강소성사구위생복무중심상위자원예측중현시료교호적효과，예측결과가위정부락실상관만성비전염성질병적방치공작，제정사구상위자원배치표준제공결책삼고。
Objective To explore the material resources prediction methods in community health service center in Jiangsu province , improve the level of resources allocation and provide the appropriate material guarantee for chronic non -com-municable diseases prevention and control work in Jiangsu.Methods ARMA (1, 2) model was used to forecast the beds of com-munity in Jiangsu from 2012 to 2018 to reflect the material resources allocation.Results Time series forecasting model ARMA (1, 2) of bed resources in community in Jiangsu province was lgY t=0.405 9+0.912 1lgYt-1 +ut -1.944 1ut-1 +0.995 0ut-2. Conclusion The time series methods have good effect in the prediction , The prediction results could provide reference for deci-sion of bed resource allocation standard in government implementing the chronic non -communicable diseases prevention and con-trol work.