中国农村水利水电
中國農村水利水電
중국농촌수이수전
CHINA RURAL WATER AND HYDROPOWER
2014年
9期
184-188,193
,共6页
配电网%短期负荷%Hilbert-Huang变换%组合预测法
配電網%短期負荷%Hilbert-Huang變換%組閤預測法
배전망%단기부하%Hilbert-Huang변환%조합예측법
distribution network%short-term load%Hilbert-Huang transform%combined forecasting method
提出一种基于HHT的配电网短期负荷组合预测方法。该方法利用EMD分解将负荷信号分解为一组IMF分量，通过分析IM F分量对应的边际谱提取周期项、随机项及趋势项。对各个特征量分别采用CPN、SVM 及二次指数平滑法进行预测，最后通过直接叠加各分量预测值得到最终预测结果。通过仿真算例，验证该组合模型的精度高于任何一种单一模型和传统线性组合模型，具有较高的预测精度。
提齣一種基于HHT的配電網短期負荷組閤預測方法。該方法利用EMD分解將負荷信號分解為一組IMF分量，通過分析IM F分量對應的邊際譜提取週期項、隨機項及趨勢項。對各箇特徵量分彆採用CPN、SVM 及二次指數平滑法進行預測，最後通過直接疊加各分量預測值得到最終預測結果。通過倣真算例，驗證該組閤模型的精度高于任何一種單一模型和傳統線性組閤模型，具有較高的預測精度。
제출일충기우HHT적배전망단기부하조합예측방법。해방법이용EMD분해장부하신호분해위일조IMF분량，통과분석IM F분량대응적변제보제취주기항、수궤항급추세항。대각개특정량분별채용CPN、SVM 급이차지수평활법진행예측，최후통과직접첩가각분량예측치득도최종예측결과。통과방진산례，험증해조합모형적정도고우임하일충단일모형화전통선성조합모형，구유교고적예측정도。
A distribution network short-term load forecasting model based on HHT is proposed .Through the HHT method of EMD model ,the non-stationary and nonlinear distribution short-term load is decomposed into stationary IMF components .Through the a-nalysis of each component corresponding to the Hilbert marginal spectrum of HHT ,the periodic ,the random and the trend are ex-tracted from original signal ,and each component is predicted separately by using CPN ,SVM and the secondary exponential smoot-hing method ,the final forecasting result can be obtained by adding each forecasting result .The combined forecasting method in this paper has higher prediction precision ,which is confirmed by comparing the results of other methods and each single forecasting method .
