海洋科学
海洋科學
해양과학
MARINE SCIENCES
2014年
2期
1-5
,共5页
降水异常%淮河流域%年际%年代际变化%太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)%印度洋偶极子指数(DMI)
降水異常%淮河流域%年際%年代際變化%太平洋年代際振盪(PDO)%印度洋偶極子指數(DMI)
강수이상%회하류역%년제%년대제변화%태평양년대제진탕(PDO)%인도양우겁자지수(DMI)
precipitation anomaly%the Huaihe River Valley%inter-annual%inter-decadal%the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)%dipole mode index (DMI)
对淮河流域降水异常进行分析对于预测黄海绿潮具有重要意义。选取淮河流域10个站,长江流域15个站,通过对国家气象信息中心1951~2011年的逐月降水数据进行分析,研究淮河流域和长江流域5~6月平均降水异常。2000~2010年,淮河流域5~6月降水呈现增加趋势,与长江流域降水呈反位相变化。分别对淮河流域5~6月平均降水异常与印度洋偶极子指数(Dipole Mode Index, DMI),以及太平洋年代际振荡(the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO)指数做相关性分析,结果表明：淮河流域5~6月平均降水异常与6个月前的DMI指数达到最大正相关,与20个月前的北太平洋(20°N以北)SST呈现明显的负相关,与PDO指数达到最大负相关。这表明, PDO、DMI指数对淮河流域5~6月降水异常的年代际、年际变化具有明显的指示作用。
對淮河流域降水異常進行分析對于預測黃海綠潮具有重要意義。選取淮河流域10箇站,長江流域15箇站,通過對國傢氣象信息中心1951~2011年的逐月降水數據進行分析,研究淮河流域和長江流域5~6月平均降水異常。2000~2010年,淮河流域5~6月降水呈現增加趨勢,與長江流域降水呈反位相變化。分彆對淮河流域5~6月平均降水異常與印度洋偶極子指數(Dipole Mode Index, DMI),以及太平洋年代際振盪(the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO)指數做相關性分析,結果錶明：淮河流域5~6月平均降水異常與6箇月前的DMI指數達到最大正相關,與20箇月前的北太平洋(20°N以北)SST呈現明顯的負相關,與PDO指數達到最大負相關。這錶明, PDO、DMI指數對淮河流域5~6月降水異常的年代際、年際變化具有明顯的指示作用。
대회하류역강수이상진행분석대우예측황해록조구유중요의의。선취회하류역10개참,장강류역15개참,통과대국가기상신식중심1951~2011년적축월강수수거진행분석,연구회하류역화장강류역5~6월평균강수이상。2000~2010년,회하류역5~6월강수정현증가추세,여장강류역강수정반위상변화。분별대회하류역5~6월평균강수이상여인도양우겁자지수(Dipole Mode Index, DMI),이급태평양년대제진탕(the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO)지수주상관성분석,결과표명：회하류역5~6월평균강수이상여6개월전적DMI지수체도최대정상관,여20개월전적북태평양(20°N이북)SST정현명현적부상관,여PDO지수체도최대부상관。저표명, PDO、DMI지수대회하류역5~6월강수이상적년대제、년제변화구유명현적지시작용。
Rainfall anomalies in the Huaihe River Valley (HRV) is one of the most important factors for green tides outbreaks. So study of the rainfall anomalies of HRV is very important for forecast of the green tides in the Yellow Sea. The monthly precipitation data from 1951 to 2011 used here was from the National Meteorological Information Center, 10 stations in HRV and 15 stations in the Changjiang River Valley (CRV). May-June (MJ) average rainfall anomalies showed an upward trend in HRV from 2000 to 2009, while a downward trend in CRV. Correlation analyses had been done between MJ average rainfall anomalies and the dipole mode index (DMI), and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index, respectively. A most significant positive correlation was found between the DMI 6 months ago and the MJ average rainfall anomalies of HRV of the year, confidence exceeding 95%. The North Pacific SST (north of 20°N) as well as the PDO index of 20 months ago, negatively correlated with MJ average precipitation anomalies in HRV of the year significantly, confidence exceeding 95%. In summary, these data indicate that DMI and PDO index demonstrate distinct indications of inter-annual and inter-decadal changes for MJ average rainfall in HRV, respectively.
