干旱气象
榦旱氣象
간한기상
GANSU METEOROLOGY
2014年
2期
194-200,219
,共8页
李慧晶%刘建西%刘东升%王维佳%林丹
李慧晶%劉建西%劉東升%王維佳%林丹
리혜정%류건서%류동승%왕유가%림단
西南地区%总云量%低云量%经验正交函数(EOF)分解%突变分析
西南地區%總雲量%低雲量%經驗正交函數(EOF)分解%突變分析
서남지구%총운량%저운량%경험정교함수(EOF)분해%돌변분석
Southwestern China%total cloud cover%low cloud cover%empirical orthogonal function%Mann-Kendall test
利用西南地区（云南、贵州、四川、重庆）记录较为完整的73个测站1956～2005年月平均云量资料，采用经验正交函数分析和Mann-Kendall突变检验方法，研究分析了西南地区云量的时空分布特征。结果表明：就全年而言，整个西南地区总云量的变化趋势一致，且存在着明显的年际变化特征，1990年代以后全年总云量表现出减少趋势；此外，总云量的分布在一定程度上受地形和区域气候的影响。从季节来看，夏、秋、冬季的总云量在西南地区为空间一致的变化趋势，而春季四川盆地北部总云量的变化趋势与其余地区相反；四季总云量也有明显的年际变化特征。低云量，全年和四季的时空变化特征相似，由于受地形起伏及区域气候差异的影响，川西高原东部和重庆地区的变化趋势与四川盆地的相反，且同样存在着明显的年际变化特征。另外，突变分析结果显示，西南地区的低云量近50 a来呈持续减少趋势，而总云量在1990年发生突变，突变前在0线附近震荡，突变后总云量持续减少。
利用西南地區（雲南、貴州、四川、重慶）記錄較為完整的73箇測站1956～2005年月平均雲量資料，採用經驗正交函數分析和Mann-Kendall突變檢驗方法，研究分析瞭西南地區雲量的時空分佈特徵。結果錶明：就全年而言，整箇西南地區總雲量的變化趨勢一緻，且存在著明顯的年際變化特徵，1990年代以後全年總雲量錶現齣減少趨勢；此外，總雲量的分佈在一定程度上受地形和區域氣候的影響。從季節來看，夏、鞦、鼕季的總雲量在西南地區為空間一緻的變化趨勢，而春季四川盆地北部總雲量的變化趨勢與其餘地區相反；四季總雲量也有明顯的年際變化特徵。低雲量，全年和四季的時空變化特徵相似，由于受地形起伏及區域氣候差異的影響，川西高原東部和重慶地區的變化趨勢與四川盆地的相反，且同樣存在著明顯的年際變化特徵。另外，突變分析結果顯示，西南地區的低雲量近50 a來呈持續減少趨勢，而總雲量在1990年髮生突變，突變前在0線附近震盪，突變後總雲量持續減少。
이용서남지구（운남、귀주、사천、중경）기록교위완정적73개측참1956～2005년월평균운량자료，채용경험정교함수분석화Mann-Kendall돌변검험방법，연구분석료서남지구운량적시공분포특정。결과표명：취전년이언，정개서남지구총운량적변화추세일치，차존재착명현적년제변화특정，1990년대이후전년총운량표현출감소추세；차외，총운량적분포재일정정도상수지형화구역기후적영향。종계절래간，하、추、동계적총운량재서남지구위공간일치적변화추세，이춘계사천분지북부총운량적변화추세여기여지구상반；사계총운량야유명현적년제변화특정。저운량，전년화사계적시공변화특정상사，유우수지형기복급구역기후차이적영향，천서고원동부화중경지구적변화추세여사천분지적상반，차동양존재착명현적년제변화특정。령외，돌변분석결과현시，서남지구적저운량근50 a래정지속감소추세，이총운량재1990년발생돌변，돌변전재0선부근진탕，돌변후총운량지속감소。
Based on the monthly mean cloud cover data at 73 observation stations in Southwest China from 1956 to 2005,the spatial and temporal distributions of cloud cover were analyzed by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF)analysis and Mann-Kendall test. The results showed that the first eigenvectors of annual total cloud cover by EOF in Southwest China were negative consistently,and the temporal coefficient of the first eigenvector of annual total cloud cover decreased after the 1990s. This means that the change trends of annual total cloud cover were consistent,and the interannual variation was obvious. Moreover,the second eigenvectors of annual total cloud cover were different,and the eigenvector values in the east of Southwestern China were negative and positive in the west of South-western China. It means that the spatial distribution of annual total cloud cover was connected with terrain and climate to some extent. From the view of seasonal variation,the spatial distribution of total cloud cover in summer,autumn and winter was also consistent,but that in spring was different,and the change trend of total cloud cover in northern Sichuan Basin in spring was opposite to the rest of Southwest China. Furthermore,the total cloud cover in four seasons appeared obvious interannual variation. The spatial and temporal distribution of low cloud cover in four seasons and year was similar,and the change trend of low cloud cover in the east of the western Sichuan highland and Chongqing was opposite to Sichuan Basin due to the influence of terrain and regional climate. As with the total cloud cover,the low cloud cover had obvious annual variation. In addition,the low cloud cover over southwest China decreased contin-uously in past 50 years,but the total cloud cover had a decreasing mutation in 1990.
