CAJ | 학술논문

基于内蒙古地区71个地面气象站1961～2010年逐日最高气温、最低气温以及逐日降水资料，结合温度和降水极端值和极端事件指标，采用气温资料均一性检验和订正、多项式法、线性倾向、Mann-Kendall法等统计学方法诊断分析其变化特征。结果表明：（1）近50 a内蒙古地区年和四季平均气温均发生了突变，1987年为年平均气温突变转折点，四季气温突变时间春季最早，夏季最晚；（2）内蒙古地区表征极端气温增暖的极端最高气温、极端最低气温、高温日数、暖夜日数和暖日日数等指数均呈明显增加趋势；极端低温事件指标如低温日数、冷夜日数和冷日日数等均呈现出减少趋势，尤其在气温突变之后，增暖趋势和低温减少趋势更为明显。同时，气温突变后，大多数极端气温事件指数变差系数增大，说明极端气温事件的波动性增大；（3）内蒙古地区除极端降雪量呈略微增加趋势外，其余极端降水事件指标均呈明显减少趋势，尤其在气温突变后，其极端降水事件减少，降水强度减弱。
기우내몽고지구71개지면기상참1961～2010년축일최고기온、최저기온이급축일강수자료，결합온도화강수겁단치화겁단사건지표，채용기온자료균일성검험화정정、다항식법、선성경향、Mann-Kendall법등통계학방법진단분석기변화특정。결과표명：（1）근50 a내몽고지구년화사계평균기온균발생료돌변，1987년위년평균기온돌변전절점，사계기온돌변시간춘계최조，하계최만；（2）내몽고지구표정겁단기온증난적겁단최고기온、겁단최저기온、고온일수、난야일수화난일일수등지수균정명현증가추세；겁단저온사건지표여저온일수、랭야일수화랭일일수등균정현출감소추세，우기재기온돌변지후，증난추세화저온감소추세경위명현。동시，기온돌변후，대다수겁단기온사건지수변차계수증대，설명겁단기온사건적파동성증대；（3）내몽고지구제겁단강설량정략미증가추세외，기여겁단강수사건지표균정명현감소추세，우기재기온돌변후，기겁단강수사건감소，강수강도감약。
Based on daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation of 71 weather stations in Inner Mongolia during 1961-2010,according to the extreme indexes of temperature and precipitation,the variable characteristics of extreme climate events were an-alyzed by using homogeneity test and revisal,the polynomial method,linear tendency estimation,Mann-Kendall test. The results are as follows:(1)In recent 50 years,the annual and seasonal average temperatures occurred mutations in Inner Mongolia,but the muta-tion time of them had difference. The annual temperature had an abrupt change in 1988. The mutation of temperature in spring was ear-liest,and in summer was latest. (2)The indexes of extreme high temperature such as maximum and minimum temperature,high tem-perature days,warm night days and warm daytime days increased obviously,while the extreme low temperature indexes such as low temperature days,cold night days and cold daytime days decreased significantly especially after mutation. However,the fluctuation of extreme temperature increased after mutation. (3)The indexes of the extreme precipitation events reduced significantly except for the extreme snowfall especially after mutation in Inner Mongolia.