CAJ | 학술논문

通过对重庆城口县1961～2012年的平均气温、平均日最高气温、平均日最低气温随时间变化特征的分析发现：近52 a来城口县年平均气温微弱增温，气候倾向率为0．09℃/10 a，远小于全国平均气温的增幅。与年平均气温的变化相比，年平均日最高、最低气温的增温更显著，气候倾向率分别为0．28℃/10 a和0．12℃/10 a。年平均气温、年平均日最高、最低气温分别于1998、1998、1990年发生了显著突变，且均有2～4 a的周期振荡特征。CCLM高精度区域气候模式模拟的重庆城口地区的气温数据可较好地反映气温的年际变化趋势，且在SRES-A1B（中等排放）情景下2013～2050年城口地区预估的气温将呈增加趋势，年平均气温、年平均日最高、最低气温平均增幅（相对于1981～2000年）分别为1．19、1．34、1．02℃。
통과대중경성구현1961～2012년적평균기온、평균일최고기온、평균일최저기온수시간변화특정적분석발현：근52 a래성구현년평균기온미약증온，기후경향솔위0．09℃/10 a，원소우전국평균기온적증폭。여년평균기온적변화상비，년평균일최고、최저기온적증온경현저，기후경향솔분별위0．28℃/10 a화0．12℃/10 a。년평균기온、년평균일최고、최저기온분별우1998、1998、1990년발생료현저돌변，차균유2～4 a적주기진탕특정。CCLM고정도구역기후모식모의적중경성구지구적기온수거가교호지반영기온적년제변화추세，차재SRES-A1B（중등배방）정경하2013～2050년성구지구예고적기온장정증가추세，년평균기온、년평균일최고、최저기온평균증폭（상대우1981～2000년）분별위1．19、1．34、1．02℃。
Based on annual mean temperature,daily maximum and minimum temperature in Chengkou of Chongqing from 1961 to 2012,the variation characteristics and predictive trend of temperature were analyzed. The results showed that the annual temperature increased weakly from 1961 to 2012 in Chengkou,and the linear tendency rate with 0. 09 ℃/10 a was less than that of China. Com-pared with the annual mean temperature,the annual mean daily maximum and minimum temperature were more significant,and the warming rate were 0. 28℃/10 a and 0. 12℃/10 a. The mutations of annual mean temperature,daily maximum and minimum temper-ature happened in 1998,1998 and 1990,respectively. And there were significant the periodic oscillations with 2-4 years for the an-nual mean temperature,daily maximum and minimum temperature. In addition,the temperature in Chengkou simulated by CCLM (COSMO Model in Climate Mode)can well reflect the interannual variation trend of temperature. The temperature predicted by CCLM in the SRES-A1B scenario during 2013-2050 will keep on increasing,and the annual mean temperature,daily maximum and mini-mum temperature will increase 1. 19,1. 34 and 1. 02 ℃,respectively.