CAJ | 학술논문

基于MIKE SA溢油模块，以燃料油为油种，建立了厦门西港海域溢油模型，模拟静风、主导风向（东北东风）和不利风向（西南风）3种风场条件下，一个潮周期内涨急、高潮、落急和低潮4个时段发生10 t溢油后油膜的漂移路径和影响范围．结果显示，发生在厦门西港海域的溢油在海面的漂移过程主要受潮流和风的影响，其中潮流起着主导作用．不同风向条件下，24 h内油膜的影响范围不同，静风条件下溢油浓度超一类（或二类，≥0．05 mg/dm3）、超三类（≥0．30 mg/dm3）和超四类（≥0．50 mg/dm3）的总影响面积分别为31．33、19．63和11．74 km2；主导风向条件下溢油浓度超一类（或二类）、超三类和超四类的总影响面积分别为99．62、69．01和8．99 km2；不利风向溢油浓度超一类（或二类）、超三类和超四类的总影响面积分别为8．38、5．05和2．10 km2．该预测结果可给出溢油事故发生后的影响范围、影响程度和影响敏感目标的时间，可为溢油事故应急决策的制定及溢油损害评估提供科学决策和支持，提升厦门海域环境风险管理应急能力建设．
기우MIKE SA일유모괴，이연료유위유충，건립료하문서항해역일유모형，모의정풍、주도풍향（동북동풍）화불리풍향（서남풍）3충풍장조건하，일개조주기내창급、고조、락급화저조4개시단발생10 t일유후유막적표이로경화영향범위．결과현시，발생재하문서항해역적일유재해면적표이과정주요수조류화풍적영향，기중조류기착주도작용．불동풍향조건하，24 h내유막적영향범위불동，정풍조건하일유농도초일류（혹이류，≥0．05 mg/dm3）、초삼류（≥0．30 mg/dm3）화초사류（≥0．50 mg/dm3）적총영향면적분별위31．33、19．63화11．74 km2；주도풍향조건하일유농도초일류（혹이류）、초삼류화초사류적총영향면적분별위99．62、69．01화8．99 km2；불리풍향일유농도초일류（혹이류）、초삼류화초사류적총영향면적분별위8．38、5．05화2．10 km2．해예측결과가급출일유사고발생후적영향범위、영향정도화영향민감목표적시간，가위일유사고응급결책적제정급일유손해평고제공과학결책화지지，제승하문해역배경풍험관리응급능력건설．
Based on the MIKE spill analysis model the oil spill model was built in the west Xiamen Harbor,and then the drift path and the influence of oil film were simulated under the calm wind,the dominant wind and adverse wind conditions.Ten tons of fuel oil was set as the initial spill to model the oil-spill diffusion process over 24 h.The results showed that the oil spill drift in the sea was mainly influenced by tide and wind,while the tide played a dominant role.The migration trend of the oil film was different under different wind conditions.The total area after oil spill was 31.33,19.63 km2 and 11.74 km2 under the calm wind conditions with oil concentration exceeded 0.05,0.30 mg/dm3 and 0.50 mg/dm3,respectively.The total area was 99.62,69.01 and 8.99km2 under the east-northeast wind conditions and 8.38,5.05 and 2.10 km2 under the southwest wind conditions.In general,the oil film covered largest area under the dominant wind (the northeast wind ).The predicted results could provide technical support for the oil spill emergency decision-making and its damage assessment.