CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于C-D生产函数和IS-LM体系建立地方政府债务对经济增长影响的效应模型，并选择2005～2010年西部Y省106个县域面板数据进行实证检验。研究发现，地方政府债务总体上促进县域经济增长，但相对于社会投资经济效应而言明显较弱。从分区域比较来看，由于存在挤出效应，地方政府债务的促进作用在高社会投资率样本中较小，在低社会投资率样本中较大。这表明，除了要提升债务资金配置效率，举借债务还要考虑辖区内的社会投资需求水平，而不能盲目扩张债务，否则会降低债务投入的有效性，进而加剧地方政府债务风险。
본문기우C-D생산함수화IS-LM체계건입지방정부채무대경제증장영향적효응모형，병선택2005～2010년서부Y성106개현역면판수거진행실증검험。연구발현，지방정부채무총체상촉진현역경제증장，단상대우사회투자경제효응이언명현교약。종분구역비교래간，유우존재제출효응，지방정부채무적촉진작용재고사회투자솔양본중교소，재저사회투자솔양본중교대。저표명，제료요제승채무자금배치효솔，거차채무환요고필할구내적사회투자수구수평，이불능맹목확장채무，부칙회강저채무투입적유효성，진이가극지방정부채무풍험。
Based on the C-D production function and IS-LM system,this paper builts the local government debt effect model on the impact of the economic growth.106 counties were selected from the western province Y to empirical test, based on the panel data from 2005 to 2010.The study finds that the local government debt,on the whole,promoting the growth of country economy,while comparing to the social investment,its economic effect becomes obviously weaker.From the comparison of different regions,the promoting role of the local government debt is smaller in the high investment rate samples and bigger in the low ones.This result shows that raising debt can not only enhance the debt capital allocation effi-ciency,but also consider the level of social investment demand within the jurisdiction.Therefore,the government could not expend the debt blindly,but reduce the effectiveness of the debt and then aggravate the local government debt risk instead.