CAJ | 학술논문

目的：探讨新疆克拉玛依市2006-2010年医疗机构提供医疗卫生服务以及社会发展情况，测算2011-2015年医疗机构的卫生技术人员数量和机构，为合理配置与规划医疗机构的发展提供有效的依据。方法根据2006-2010的卫生服务需求数据，利用等维灰数递补动态模型预测2011-2015年的卫生服务需求数据，再利用卫生服务需求法计算2011-2015年的医生数，最后利用相应的指标推算其他人员的数据量。结果根据卫生服务需求法测算2011年克市医疗卫生机构总人数应为3508名，其中医生926名、护士1111名，2015年为3663名，其中医生967名、护士1160名；截止2010年底卫生人员是2987名，与2011年测算的卫生人员总数相差521名，卫生技术人员2010年数量与2015年测算的卫生技术人员相差643名。结论克市医疗机构卫生人员总量不足，卫生人员结构不合理，工勤人员比例偏高，其他卫生技术人员比例偏低；2011-2015年克市卫生技术人才引进工作压力大。
목적：탐토신강극랍마의시2006-2010년의료궤구제공의료위생복무이급사회발전정황，측산2011-2015년의료궤구적위생기술인원수량화궤구，위합리배치여규화의료궤구적발전제공유효적의거。방법근거2006-2010적위생복무수구수거，이용등유회수체보동태모형예측2011-2015년적위생복무수구수거，재이용위생복무수구법계산2011-2015년적의생수，최후이용상응적지표추산기타인원적수거량。결과근거위생복무수구법측산2011년극시의료위생궤구총인수응위3508명，기중의생926명、호사1111명，2015년위3663명，기중의생967명、호사1160명；절지2010년저위생인원시2987명，여2011년측산적위생인원총수상차521명，위생기술인원2010년수량여2015년측산적위생기술인원상차643명。결론극시의료궤구위생인원총량불족，위생인원결구불합리，공근인원비례편고，기타위생기술인원비례편저；2011-2015년극시위생기술인재인진공작압력대。
Objective The number and structure of health care workforce in health care facilities over 2011 to 2015 in Karamay were predicted to provide the information of the rational allocation and scientific plan-ning for health care facilities′development,by analyzing the condition of health services provided by health care facilities and social development from 2006 to 2010 in Karamay.Methods Based on health services de-mand data during 2006 to 2010,a dimension gray recurrence dynamic model was developed to predict the health services demand from 2011 to 2015 in Karamay.Subsequently the calculation method of health serv-ices demand was used to estimate the number of physicians.Finally the corresponding indices were applied to obtain the number of the other workers.Results The estimated total number of health care workforce by 2011 was 3508,and among whom physicians and nurses were 926 and 1 111,respectively.The projected total number of health care workforce by 2015 was 3663,and those of physicians and nurses were 967 and 1160,respectively.At the end of 2010,the number of health care workforce was 2987,which was 521 less than that for the year 2011 and 643 less than the one for the year 2015.Conclusion There was a shortage of health care professionals in health care facilities in Karamay.As the number of health care pro-fessionals was relatively low,while that of the other workers was relatively high,so the structure of the health care personnel was not reasonable in Karamay.Thus,Karamay is facing the challenge of the intro-duction of health care professionals in the following five years.