CAJ | 학술논문

通过整理G2京津塘高速公路2年（2007年7月1日至2009年6月30日）逐月逐时的万辆车流的交通事故和交通流量及气象要素资料，并将各月平均万辆车流的交通事故（交通事故与交通流量之商）与同步综合气象参数进行日变化相关分析。结果表明：各月平均万辆车流交通事故量的日变化趋势为双峰型，主高峰出现在05-07时，次高峰出现在21-23时。2年平均高峰值为每万辆1．8起。各月的逐时平均万辆车流的交通事故与同步综合气象参数呈正抛物线的偏右侧相关、自然指数相关或线性相关，即万辆车流的交通事故随综合气象参数的加大而增多。为了提高高速公路交通安全的气象服务水平，建立了4个交通气象风险和交通气象安全指数的级别；应用 WRF-RUC 数值预报产品对2个月逐日的独立样本模拟预报交通气象安全指数，其月平均基本准确率为62．5％～95．8％。此结果为高速公路交通提供客观的科学依据，在华北地区的高速公路气象服务中具有一定的推广价值。
통과정리G2경진당고속공로2년（2007년7월1일지2009년6월30일）축월축시적만량차류적교통사고화교통류량급기상요소자료，병장각월평균만량차류적교통사고（교통사고여교통류량지상）여동보종합기상삼수진행일변화상관분석。결과표명：각월평균만량차류교통사고량적일변화추세위쌍봉형，주고봉출현재05-07시，차고봉출현재21-23시。2년평균고봉치위매만량1．8기。각월적축시평균만량차류적교통사고여동보종합기상삼수정정포물선적편우측상관、자연지수상관혹선성상관，즉만량차류적교통사고수종합기상삼수적가대이증다。위료제고고속공로교통안전적기상복무수평，건립료4개교통기상풍험화교통기상안전지수적급별；응용 WRF-RUC 수치예보산품대2개월축일적독립양본모의예보교통기상안전지수，기월평균기본준학솔위62．5％～95．8％。차결과위고속공로교통제공객관적과학의거，재화북지구적고속공로기상복무중구유일정적추엄개치。
Based on the analysis of the monthly and daily traffic accidents rate of per 10 000 vehicle (TAR) and meteorological elements over two years (01/01/2007-30/01/2009 )observed from Jingjintang High-way,the correlation analysis is done on diurnal variation between mean TAR and integrated meteorological parameter (IMP).The results show that the diurnal variation of accident in each month usually has two peaks.The mainly peak occurs during 05:00-07:00 BT,and the second peak during 21:00-23:00 BT. The maximum annual average accident can reach to 1 .8 TAR.The mean hourly TAR in each month has some relationship in parabola,exponential,or linear with the IMP that means the TAR has the same trend with IMP.To improve traffic weather service for highway,a four-level traffic weather risk and safety in-dex is set up.The simulated forecast of diurnal IMP of two months is applied by utilizing a WRF based NWP outputs,whose mean monthly accuracy is 62.5% and 95.8% respectively.This result provides rea-sonable basis for highway safety management and has wide-spread application value for highway traffic weather service in Huabei Region.