CAJ | 학술논문

为了充分利用数值模式的预报产品信息，首先对数值模式预报产品的误差进行了分析，针对误差分析结果，首次提出了一种新的基于模式预报倾向的精细化预报方法，并在此基础上设计开发了新疆精细化数值预报系统。初步试验结果表明：该方法对新疆地区的温度预报具有一定的正效果。后期经过调整订正系数，利用更多时次的观测资料进行温度订正，则有望可以使订正的温度更加接近观测。即该方法可以提高气象台站的温度预报准确率，展现了该方法的业务应用潜力。
위료충분이용수치모식적예보산품신식，수선대수치모식예보산품적오차진행료분석，침대오차분석결과，수차제출료일충신적기우모식예보경향적정세화예보방법，병재차기출상설계개발료신강정세화수치예보계통。초보시험결과표명：해방법대신강지구적온도예보구유일정적정효과。후기경과조정정정계수，이용경다시차적관측자료진행온도정정，칙유망가이사정정적온도경가접근관측。즉해방법가이제고기상태참적온도예보준학솔，전현료해방법적업무응용잠력。
To fully use the information of forecast products from numerical models,the errors of the prod-ucts are analyzed.According to the results of the analysis,a refined forecast method is proposed and based on it a new Xinjiang refined numerical forecast system is developed.Preliminary tests are conducted and the results show that the new method has a positive effect on temperature forecasting in the area of Xin-jiang.After adjustment of correction coefficients and usage of more observations at different time points, the corrected temperature is expected to be much closer to the observations.That is,the method can im-prove the accuracy of temperature forecasting and has operational application potential.