CAJ | 학술논문

采用能值转换法、排放参数法和农田碳排放综合核算法定量核算了1999～2010年中国农村碳排放量。然后采取对数平均权重Divisia分解法建立因素分解分析模型，将影响农村人均碳排放的因素分解为碳排结构、碳排强度、产能效率和经济增长四大因素，通过模型分析了各因素对农村碳排放量的影响值和影响率。结果显示，在1999～2010年的大部分时间里中国农村碳排放量保持增长，经济增长和能源结构是推动农村碳排放增长的主要因素。最后，根据分析结果提出政策建议。
채용능치전환법、배방삼수법화농전탄배방종합핵산법정량핵산료1999～2010년중국농촌탄배방량。연후채취대수평균권중Divisia분해법건립인소분해분석모형，장영향농촌인균탄배방적인소분해위탄배결구、탄배강도、산능효솔화경제증장사대인소，통과모형분석료각인소대농촌탄배방량적영향치화영향솔。결과현시，재1999～2010년적대부분시간리중국농촌탄배방량보지증장，경제증장화능원결구시추동농촌탄배방증장적주요인소。최후，근거분석결과제출정책건의。
Energy conversion method ,emission parameters method and farmland carbon accounting method are used to account quantitatively the carbon emission in rural areas of China from 1999~2010 .Then logarithmic mean weight Divisia decomposition method is used to establish a model of factor decomposition and analysis .The factors that affect rural carbon emission per capita are decomposed into the structure of carbon emission ,intensity of car-bon emission ,efficiency of production capacity and economic growth .Analysis is made of the impact value and rate of various factors that affect the carbon emission in rural areas .The results show that the carbon emission of Chi-na’s rural areas keeps growth in most time from 1999~2010 ,and economic growth and energy structure change are major factors in promoting the grow th of carbon emission .Finally ,policy recommendations are proposed ac-cording to the results of analysis .