CAJ | 학술논문

一直以来，学者们都试图解释人口死亡率的顺经济周期波动现象。有学者提出了“生活方式改变说”，但这一假说被随后的很多实证研究所质疑。本文从环境污染角度出发考察人口死亡率顺经济周期波动的原因。回归结果显示，加入环境变量后，人口死亡率的顺经济周期波动现象有所减弱，甚至变成逆经济周期波动，这充分说明环境污染确实是人口死亡率顺经济周期波动的重要原因。笔者随后就不同地区及不同类型疾病的死亡率进行了稳健性检验，回归结果基本上支持本文所提出的“环境污染说”。
일직이래，학자문도시도해석인구사망솔적순경제주기파동현상。유학자제출료“생활방식개변설”，단저일가설피수후적흔다실증연구소질의。본문종배경오염각도출발고찰인구사망솔순경제주기파동적원인。회귀결과현시，가입배경변량후，인구사망솔적순경제주기파동현상유소감약，심지변성역경제주기파동，저충분설명배경오염학실시인구사망솔순경제주기파동적중요원인。필자수후취불동지구급불동류형질병적사망솔진행료은건성검험，회귀결과기본상지지본문소제출적“배경오염설”。
Economists have attempted to explain why population mortality rate fluctuates cyclically .Some economists proposed that the changes in lifestyle contribute to the cyclical fluctuation of mortality rate , but this point of view was challenged by many empirical studies later .From environmental pollution angle , the paper attempts to explain this phenomenon .The empirical results show that the extent of cyclical fluctuation of mor-tality rate is weakened when adding environmental pollution variables into model .This conclusion shows that environmental pollution is indeed the important reason for the cyclical fluctuation of mortality rate .Then, the paper divides the sample into several subsamples according to different regions and different diseases respec -tively.The results basically support the “environmental pollution hypothesis”.