CAJ | 학술논문

[目的]探讨Gail乳腺癌风险评估模型在上海市黄浦区范围内评估乳腺癌高危人群的应用价值。[方法]采用病例对照研究回顾性地调查了黄浦区户籍的156例乳腺癌病例和198例年龄匹配的对照人群，对年龄、乳腺疾病史、家族史、初潮年龄、初产年龄、乳腺活检情况及种族的资料，应用Gail乳腺癌风险评估模型评估5年前的发病风险。[结果]病例组72例及对照组11例，经模型评估后提示有5年内乳腺癌发病高风险。 Gail模型作为诊断试验的评价结果，其灵敏度为50．3％，特异度为92．0％，阳性预测值为86．7％，阴性预测值为64．0％（χ2＝60．09，P＝0．000；配对χ2＝43．90，P＝0．000），约登指数为0．423，总一致性为70．7％。[结论] Gail乳腺癌风险评估模型在本研究中对乳腺癌发病高风险人群的预测价值没有达到预期效果，其作为高风险人群乳腺癌筛查的工具还有待进一步研究。
[목적]탐토Gail유선암풍험평고모형재상해시황포구범위내평고유선암고위인군적응용개치。[방법]채용병례대조연구회고성지조사료황포구호적적156례유선암병례화198례년령필배적대조인군，대년령、유선질병사、가족사、초조년령、초산년령、유선활검정황급충족적자료，응용Gail유선암풍험평고모형평고5년전적발병풍험。[결과]병례조72례급대조조11례，경모형평고후제시유5년내유선암발병고풍험。 Gail모형작위진단시험적평개결과，기령민도위50．3％，특이도위92．0％，양성예측치위86．7％，음성예측치위64．0％（χ2＝60．09，P＝0．000；배대χ2＝43．90，P＝0．000），약등지수위0．423，총일치성위70．7％。[결론] Gail유선암풍험평고모형재본연구중대유선암발병고풍험인군적예측개치몰유체도예기효과，기작위고풍험인군유선암사사적공구환유대진일보연구。
To discuss the application value of the Gail model in evaluation of breast cancer risk in Huangpu District , Shanghai. [Methods] Case-control study was adopted for 156 cases of breast cancer and 198 age-matched controls .From the subjects were collected information of age , history of breast disease , family history , age at menarche , age at first birth , breast biopsy and race .Gail model was used to evaluate the risk of breast cancer for these women 5 years before. [Results] A total of 72 cases and 11 controls had high risk of breast cancer within 5 years.As the evaluation results of the diagnos-tic test, the sensitivity of the Gail model was 50.3 percent and the specificity 92.0 percent.The positive predictive value was 86.7 percent and the negative predictive value 64.0 percent (The Chi square was 60. 09 and P value 0.000, The McNemar Chi square was 43.90 and P value 0.000).The Youden's index was 0.423.The total agreement was 70.7 percent. [ Conclusion] The Gail model did not achieve the de-sired results for assessment of population with high risk of breast cancer .The tool needs to be further studied as a tool for screening population with high risk of breast cancer .