CAJ | 학술논문

利用1981-2010年湖南省97个地面气象观测站降水资料，基于二阶求导和尖顶突变模型等方法，分别对短历时降水序列和过程降水序列进行时间突变分析。结果表明：不同时间的最大小时累积降水量在时间上的突变点分别为12.0 h和6.1 h；过程降水持续时间突变点分别为10.0 d和4.4 d，不同持续时间最大降水量占过程总降水量的百分比及最大降水量在时间序列上的突变点分别为10.0d、4.6d和10.0d、4.9d。建立的湖南省极端降水过程客观监测指标为：连续1-6h、12h最大降水量，连续1-5 d、10 d最大降水量和过程累积降水量及降水持续时间。指标的适用性通过与农作物因洪涝灾害的受灾率、成灾率及单位面积粮食减产量的相关分析进行验证。
이용1981-2010년호남성97개지면기상관측참강수자료，기우이계구도화첨정돌변모형등방법，분별대단력시강수서렬화과정강수서렬진행시간돌변분석。결과표명：불동시간적최대소시루적강수량재시간상적돌변점분별위12.0 h화6.1 h；과정강수지속시간돌변점분별위10.0 d화4.4 d，불동지속시간최대강수량점과정총강수량적백분비급최대강수량재시간서렬상적돌변점분별위10.0d、4.6d화10.0d、4.9d。건립적호남성겁단강수과정객관감측지표위：련속1-6h、12h최대강수량，련속1-5 d、10 d최대강수량화과정루적강수량급강수지속시간。지표적괄용성통과여농작물인홍로재해적수재솔、성재솔급단위면적양식감산량적상관분석진행험증。
Based on daily precipitation data at 97 ground weather stations from 1981 to 2010 in Hu′nan province, mutations of short-time precipitation sequence and process precipitation sequence were analyzed by methods of a second-order derivative analysis and a Cusp catastrophe model analysis.The results indicate that the maximum hourly accumulated short-time precipitation has two mutation points and both occur in the point of 12.0 hours and 6.1 hours respectively,while process precipitation has also two mutation points and both occur in the point of 10.0 days and 4.4 days.Percentage of duration of the maximum precipitation to the total process precipitation has two mutation points and both appear in the point of 10.0 days and 4.6 days.Two mutation points of maximum precipi-tation occur in the point of 10.0 days and 4.9 days.Thus,we establish a series of monitoring index of extreme pre-cipitation process in Hu′nan province,including 1-6 hours and 12 hours maximum continuous precipitation,1-5 days and 10 days maximum continuous precipitation,accumulated precipitation process and precipitation dura-tion.The indexes have been verified by correlation coefficients of monitoring indexes of extreme precipitation processes with affected and suffering rate of crop flooding disaster,and reduction rate of crop yield per unit.