CAJ | 학술논문

影响潮位观测预报的因素复杂，手工预报工作量大，需开发预报软件以满足决策需要。基于多元线性回归模型，结合现代计算机技术，设计开发了镇江站高潮位预报模块。应用该模块对镇江站高潮位进行了历史仿真。结果表明，该模块简单实用、运算速度快、预报精度高，完全满足预报规范要求，可用于镇江站高潮位预报。对类似感潮河段的潮位预报具有重要的实践意义和借鉴价值。
영향조위관측예보적인소복잡，수공예보공작량대，수개발예보연건이만족결책수요。기우다원선성회귀모형，결합현대계산궤기술，설계개발료진강참고조위예보모괴。응용해모괴대진강참고조위진행료역사방진。결과표명，해모괴간단실용、운산속도쾌、예보정도고，완전만족예보규범요구，가용우진강참고조위예보。대유사감조하단적조위예보구유중요적실천의의화차감개치。
Zhenjiang Hydrological Station is located at a tidal reach, and the tidal level is influenced by complicated factors. So heavy work load was required for manual prediction, and it is necessary to develop prediction programs for decision-making. The module of tide level forecast based on multiple linear regression model for Zhenjiang Hydrology Station is designed by using modern computer technology. The historical peak tidal level was simulated by this module. The results showed that the module is simple and useful with fast calculation speed and high precision, which meets the prediction standard. Therefore, it can be ap-plied to Zhenjiang Hydrological Station and has practical significance and reference value.