CAJ | 학술논문

本文采用1992～2011年台湾25个制造业的面板数据对两岸贸易的就业效应进行实证研究。首先就整体制造业估计了台湾进出口大陆对岛内就业的影响；然后分行业类型检验了两岸贸易的就业效应，以考察台湾进出口大陆对就业影响的行业差异。整体制造业估计结果表明，台湾出口大陆对岛内就业有显著正向影响，自大陆进口则无明显影响；分行业类型估计结果表明，台湾进出口大陆对岛内就业的影响存在明显的行业差异。另外，引入台商投资作为调节变量，进一步探讨两岸贸易对台湾就业的影响，研究显示台商投资与两岸贸易的关系是两岸贸易对就业影响程度和方向的关键因素。
본문채용1992～2011년태만25개제조업적면판수거대량안무역적취업효응진행실증연구。수선취정체제조업고계료태만진출구대륙대도내취업적영향；연후분행업류형검험료량안무역적취업효응，이고찰태만진출구대륙대취업영향적행업차이。정체제조업고계결과표명，태만출구대륙대도내취업유현저정향영향，자대륙진구칙무명현영향；분행업류형고계결과표명，태만진출구대륙대도내취업적영향존재명현적행업차이。령외，인입태상투자작위조절변량，진일보탐토량안무역대태만취업적영향，연구현시태상투자여량안무역적관계시량안무역대취업영향정도화방향적관건인소。
This paper makes an empirical study of the impact of cross-strait trade on the employment in Taiwan based on a sample of 25-industry panel data from 1992 -2011 . We firstly estimate the whole employment impact of manufacture product trade, and then estimate sectoral employment impacts of manufacture product trade. From the result of the whole industry estimate,we find that export has a positive impact on employment, but import has an unobvious negative effecton employment. But the result of sectoral estimate shows that there are great differences in theimpacts of export and import on employment among sectors. In addition, we introduce Taiwaninvestment as a moderator variable in order to exam the impacts of manufacture product trade, andthe result shows that relationship between cross-strait trade and Taiwan investment is the key factorsinfluencing the employment impacts of cross-strait trade.