CAJ | 학술논문

为了解决单指标巷道顶板冒顶危险区预测方法在进行切眼顶板冒顶危险区预测时预测精度不足和预测结果不准确的问题，利用RFPA数值模拟和层次分析法，研究了切眼顶板冒顶机理和冒顶影响因素。结果揭示了切眼冒顶机理：岩层强度和刚度大小的不同会对岩层间的离层大小产生重要影响，离层量的大小决定了冒顶的程度。同时发现切眼顶板冒顶的2个主要因素为锚杆(索)支护质量和顶板岩层结构。以这2个影响因素为预测指标，建立了切眼顶板冒顶危险区预测体系。利用预测体系对12018工作面切眼顶板冒顶危险区进行了预测，预测结果显示超过50%面积的切眼顶板存在冒顶危险，危险区主要分布在切眼的上下端头位置和切眼中部位置，据此对危险区域进行了补强支护设计。补强支护后的顶板平均离层量仅为12 mm，顶板下沉速率为0.2 mm/d，保证了切眼的安全。
위료해결단지표항도정판모정위험구예측방법재진행절안정판모정위험구예측시예측정도불족화예측결과불준학적문제，이용RFPA수치모의화층차분석법，연구료절안정판모정궤리화모정영향인소。결과게시료절안모정궤리：암층강도화강도대소적불동회대암층간적리층대소산생중요영향，리층량적대소결정료모정적정도。동시발현절안정판모정적2개주요인소위묘간(색)지호질량화정판암층결구。이저2개영향인소위예측지표，건립료절안정판모정위험구예측체계。이용예측체계대12018공작면절안정판모정위험구진행료예측，예측결과현시초과50%면적적절안정판존재모정위험，위험구주요분포재절안적상하단두위치화절안중부위치，거차대위험구역진행료보강지호설계。보강지호후적정판평균리층량부위12 mm，정판하침속솔위0.2 mm/d，보증료절안적안전。
In order to improve the precision and accuracy in forecasting the risk level of opening roof only applying single index, affecting factors and mechanism of roof caving in opening area are studied with methods of RFPA numerical simulation and analysis hierarchy process. The mechanism shows that the difference in rock strength and stiffness leads to a dramatic variation in the separation size between roof strata, which has a direct impact on the degree of roof carving. Also, it points out that the anchor bolt (cable) supporting quality and the structure of roof strata are two main factors affecting roof caving in opening area. Taking these two factors as forecast indexes, the danger-area forecast system of open-ing roof was built up, and forecast of the danger-area is made in opening area of 12018 working face basing on this system. The forecast result illustrates that roof caving danger exists in more than 50%ar-ea of the roof in opening area, and the danger-areas distribute in the upper and lower end position and in the central position. According to this forecast result, reinforcing supported the danger-area to ensure the safety and reliability of mining operation, with a separate minor average size of 12 mm and a gradual falling rate of 0.2 mm/d.