CAJ | 학술논문

锚杆支护煤巷围岩变形具有非线性特征，本文基于围岩变形速度时间序列重构相空间的最大Lyapunov指数，建立了煤巷围岩变形速度的递进预测和非递进预测方法，并对木城涧煤矿+250 m水平北石门三槽西四壁工作面中平巷两帮移近速度进行预测，结果表明：围岩变形速度具有混沌特性，且两帮变形速度比顶底板变形速度的混沌程度高；围岩变形速度的拟合效果好，误差较小；采用递进预测比非递进预测方法的预测效果好，最大可预测时间尺度为45 d，平均误差为10.99%。以递进预测结果为依据进行围岩补强支护实践，获得了满意效果。
묘간지호매항위암변형구유비선성특정，본문기우위암변형속도시간서렬중구상공간적최대Lyapunov지수，건립료매항위암변형속도적체진예측화비체진예측방법，병대목성간매광+250 m수평북석문삼조서사벽공작면중평항량방이근속도진행예측，결과표명：위암변형속도구유혼돈특성，차량방변형속도비정저판변형속도적혼돈정도고；위암변형속도적의합효과호，오차교소；채용체진예측비비체진예측방법적예측효과호，최대가예측시간척도위45 d，평균오차위10.99%。이체진예측결과위의거진행위암보강지호실천，획득료만의효과。
Bolting surrounding rocks of coal roadway have nonlinear characteristics. In this paper, based on the largest Lyapunov exponent of deformation speed series, progressive forecasting and non-progressive forecasting methods of surrounding rock deformation speed were established to fore-cast the horizontal approaching speeds in two sides of one roadway in Muchengjian coal mine. The re-sults show that the deformation speeds of surrounding rocks have chaotic characteristics, and the chaotic degree of deformation speeds between two sides is higher than that between the roof and floor. The fit-ting effect of surrounding rock deformation speed is satisfactory, and the fitting error is small. The pre-diction effect of progressive forecasting is better than that of non-progressive forecasting, and the largest predictable time is about 45 days, with the average relative error of 10.99%. Based on the progressive forecasting results, supplement support practice of surrounding rocks was carried out, and a satisfactory result has been achieved.