CAJ | 학술논문

在 SAS（Relaxed Arakawa-schubert Scheme）对流参数化方案中引入对流云和层状云的相互耦合机制，并通过一个台风个例对改进前后两种方案的预报效果进行了比较。试验结果表明：对于台风这种对流云和层状云相互作用非常强烈的天气系统，在对流参数化方案中引入对流云和层状云的耦合机制可以有效地提高模式对台风路径的预报水平，但是对于台风强度的预报效果不明显。考虑对流参数化和微物理过程耦合后模式的参数化降水变弱而格点降水增强，与 NCEP 再分析资料的对比发现，改进方案对于台风外围的大尺度温度场和湿度场的预报会有所改进，但仍然存在偏干偏冷的现象。对雨和雪的不同处理方式、不同云底条件以及是否考虑雨雪的卷入抬升三个方面进行了敏感性试验，发现72 h 内模式预报结果对这些因素的差异不是很敏感。从多个个例的统计结果来看，新方案对台风路径预报的改进效果是比较稳定的。
재 SAS（Relaxed Arakawa-schubert Scheme）대류삼수화방안중인입대류운화층상운적상호우합궤제，병통과일개태풍개례대개진전후량충방안적예보효과진행료비교。시험결과표명：대우태풍저충대류운화층상운상호작용비상강렬적천기계통，재대류삼수화방안중인입대류운화층상운적우합궤제가이유효지제고모식대태풍로경적예보수평，단시대우태풍강도적예보효과불명현。고필대류삼수화화미물리과정우합후모식적삼수화강수변약이격점강수증강，여 NCEP 재분석자료적대비발현，개진방안대우태풍외위적대척도온도장화습도장적예보회유소개진，단잉연존재편간편랭적현상。대우화설적불동처리방식、불동운저조건이급시부고필우설적권입태승삼개방면진행료민감성시험，발현72 h 내모식예보결과대저사인소적차이불시흔민감。종다개개례적통계결과래간，신방안대태풍로경예보적개진효과시비교은정적。
The two-way interactions between cloud microphysics and cumulus convection are introduced into the Relaxed Araka-wa-schubert Scheme (SAS)convection scheme,the improved scheme is tested with a typhoon case and,the forecasts are com-pared with those of the original SAS scheme.The results show that the track forecast is improved obviously after the inclusion of inter-actions between convection and large-scale environments while the influence on intensity forecast is not so evident.The grid-scale ex-plicit precipitation gets much stronger and the sub-grid scale precipitation is reduced after coupling convection with cloud microphysics, with the impact on large-scale temperature and humidity also revealed based on the NCEP reanalysis data.A series of experiments are implemented to test the sensitivity of the different treatments of the convective snow,the different cloud-base conditions and the en-trainment of snow and rain with the result that 72 h forecast is not sensitive to these factors.The improvement of the revised scheme on typhoon track forecast is reliable as shown by the statistical results from many cases.