CAJ | 학술논문

利用中国东北4省／区73个地面气象观测站1971-2011年6-8月月平均气温，以及 NCEP／NCAR 再分析1971-2011年月平均高度和 NOAA 月平均海表温度（SST）资料，基于主成分回归（PCR）预测方法的思想，用同年1-5月北半球大气环流和全球 SST 场建立了东北地区夏季气温的统计预测模型，该建模方法是主成分回归方法的变形，计算方法较为简易，对气温等级的季节预测有较好的预报效果；并用其计算过程做了前期气候成因诊断。考虑到旋转经验正交函数分解样本误差较小、空间模态结构清晰，但特征向量的时间系数在不同时段有所变化的特点，故使用旋转经验正交函数分解整个时段的东北夏季气温场，然后基于旋转经验正交函数分解结果，进行前期影响因子甄别，最后建立多元线性逐步回归预测模型，建模期为前30年，独立样本预报期为后11年。30 a 逐年交叉回报检验和11 a 独立样本预测效果都显示该模型具有较高的预报技巧，尤其对气温等级的预测具有参考价值。
이용중국동북4성／구73개지면기상관측참1971-2011년6-8월월평균기온，이급 NCEP／NCAR 재분석1971-2011년월평균고도화 NOAA 월평균해표온도（SST）자료，기우주성분회귀（PCR）예측방법적사상，용동년1-5월북반구대기배류화전구 SST 장건립료동북지구하계기온적통계예측모형，해건모방법시주성분회귀방법적변형，계산방법교위간역，대기온등급적계절예측유교호적예보효과；병용기계산과정주료전기기후성인진단。고필도선전경험정교함수분해양본오차교소、공간모태결구청석，단특정향량적시간계수재불동시단유소변화적특점，고사용선전경험정교함수분해정개시단적동북하계기온장，연후기우선전경험정교함수분해결과，진행전기영향인자견별，최후건립다원선성축보회귀예측모형，건모기위전30년，독립양본예보기위후11년。30 a 축년교차회보검험화11 a 독립양본예측효과도현시해모형구유교고적예보기교，우기대기온등급적예측구유삼고개치。
Based on observed monthly surface air temperatures from the 73 stations in northeastern China from June to August during 1971-2011,the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis Ⅰ monthly height at 500 hPa and the NOAA extended reconstructed monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST)V3b data during 1971-2012,and employing the statistical prediction idea of principal compo-nent regression (PCR),the paper constructed a seasonal forecast model of the modified PCR for classified summer tempera-tures in northeastern China using the atmospheric circulation and SST of January-May this year as predictors,which made a clear explanation on the early climatic causes of the Northeast summer temperature anomalies.Because of the qualities of smal-ler sampling errors,significant spatiality structure,but flexible time series of eigenvectors for the Rotated Empirical Orthogo-nal Function (REOF),the whole time-space series data of surface air temperature from 1971 -2011 is analyzed by REOF for gaining full predictand information,the predictors are then diagnosed based on the relationships between REOF eigenvectors and preceding climatic conditions,and at finally the forecast model is built by the multiple stepwise regressions.The training period of the forecast model is the former 30 years of the time series,and the last 11 years in the time series are the period of the independenttest samples,in which the cross hindcast validation and independent test all showed skillful,especially effective for the classified temperature forecast. <br> The preceding causes of summer temperature anomalies in northeastern China are able to be found by the processes of the built model,and the results show that the certain configured situation of AO/NAO,NPO,and subtropical zonal mode (SZ)of like-signed anomalous pressure in May is significantly responsible for the surface air temperature anomaly of southeastern Northeast in the following June;and the cooperation of AO/NAO,East Pacific Oscillation,and Eurasian pattern type 1 tele-connection wave in March is responsible for the following surface air temperature anomaly of northeastern Inner Magnolia and western Northeast in July;and subtropical zonal mode pattern associated with no apparent planetary wave trains in the mid-high lati-tudes in May is responsible for the surface air temperature anomaly in the portion of northeastern Inner Magnolia and the central and western part of Heilongjiang Province in coming August,with both of which located in northern Northeast;and,on the other hand, the causes of SST anomaly show that the anomalous SST distribution like El Ni~no (La Ni~na)pattern associated with the North Atlantic Tripole pattern in positive (negative)phase is significantly matched with atmospheric circulations leading to the lower (higher)sum-mertime surface air tempertures in Northeast,and Indian Ocean Basin Mode(IOBM)in positive (negative)phase in late spring is related to the circulations leading to the higher (lower)surface air temperature in Northeast in August.