CAJ | 학술논문

利用青海省海南地区5个气象台站1961—2010年雷暴资料，采用倾向率、绝对变率和MK检验等统计方法分析了雷暴变化趋势和突变时间。结果表明，近50年来青海海南地区雷暴总体呈极显著减少趋势，每10年减少2.7 d，但各地变化特征不一致。年雷暴日数少的地区雷暴日数的减少趋势明显，而雷暴日数多的地区减少趋势不显著。雷暴的初日有推后的趋势，雷暴终日呈显著提前趋势；雷暴期呈显著缩短趋势，年雷暴日数在2000年发生了由多到少的突变。
이용청해성해남지구5개기상태참1961—2010년뇌폭자료，채용경향솔、절대변솔화MK검험등통계방법분석료뇌폭변화추세화돌변시간。결과표명，근50년래청해해남지구뇌폭총체정겁현저감소추세，매10년감소2.7 d，단각지변화특정불일치。년뇌폭일수소적지구뇌폭일수적감소추세명현，이뇌폭일수다적지구감소추세불현저。뇌폭적초일유추후적추세，뇌폭종일정현저제전추세；뇌폭기정현저축단추세，년뇌폭일수재2000년발생료유다도소적돌변。
U sing the thunderstorm data of 5 m eteorological stations in H ainan Prefecture of Q inghai Province during 1961-2010,and the statisticalm ethods of the rate of tendency, absolute rate of change and M -K test, the tem poral and spatial distribution characteristics, the trend of clim ate change and abrupt tim e of the thunderstorm w ere analyzed. T he results show ed that the total trend of thunderstorm had been decreasing in the H ainan prefecture ofQ inghaiProvince in the recent 50 years, at a rate of 2.7 day every 10 years to reduce;but there exist-ed differences in som e areas, w hen the thunderstorm in som e areas occured least,the decrease trend w as m ore obvi-ous there,how ever,itw as notobvious in the frequently thunderstorm activity. T he beginning day of thunderstorm w as de-layed, the last day of thunderstorm w as significantly ahead of norm al condition. T he period of annual thunderstorm w as shortened significantly,the days of annu-al thunderstorm show ed an abrupt change from m ore to less in 2000.