CAJ | 학술논문

以往民航空管安全管理中，大多对单一类型威胁或差错进行评估以管理风险，忽略了威胁与差错之间的交互作用，难以准确反映出不同类型风险之间的相关性。本文提出了基于不确定测度的空管运行风险决策模型，即将不确定积分Choquet积分作为风险函数，在由威胁和差错构成的集合的概念下，由Shapley值作为校正函数，重新评估各个威胁和差错的风险值。本文通过应用上述风险决策模型，结合案例得出了考虑交互作用的空管运行修正风险值，该风险值与单一风险值相比更贴近空管运行实际情况，因而对风险决策更具指导意义。
이왕민항공관안전관리중，대다대단일류형위협혹차착진행평고이관리풍험，홀략료위협여차착지간적교호작용，난이준학반영출불동류형풍험지간적상관성。본문제출료기우불학정측도적공관운행풍험결책모형，즉장불학정적분Choquet적분작위풍험함수，재유위협화차착구성적집합적개념하，유Shapley치작위교정함수，중신평고각개위협화차착적풍험치。본문통과응용상술풍험결책모형，결합안례득출료고필교호작용적공관운행수정풍험치，해풍험치여단일풍험치상비경첩근공관운행실제정황，인이대풍험결책경구지도의의。
Air traffic safety management has focused on the risk of single type of threat and error , ignoring the interaction of threats and errors .It’ s difficult to embody the correlation of different types of risk .Based on fuzzy measure , air traffic risk decision making model is proposed , where Choquet integral serves as the risk function on the coalitions formed by different types of threats and errors .On the basis of risk function , Shapley value distrib-utes the risk value to each type of threat and error .Through applying this risk decision model , we have an exam-ple to illustrate how interaction index modifies the risk value , which is more practical for air traffic operation.