科技管理研究
科技管理研究
과기관리연구
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT RESEARCH
2014年
8期
85-89
,共5页
产业经济%资源环境约束%状态空间模型%绿洲产业发展
產業經濟%資源環境約束%狀態空間模型%綠洲產業髮展
산업경제%자원배경약속%상태공간모형%록주산업발전
industrial economy%the constraints of resources and environment%state space model%industrial development of oasis
为了揭示随时间变化产业发展受资源环境约束的规律，以新疆绿洲为例，基于变参数状态空间模型，分析资源环境对产业发展的约束。结果表明，环境因子中工业废气排放对产业发展的约束程度最强。从产业结构调整的能源因子看，二产能源效率约束程度最大；从水资源因子看，农业耗水与非农业耗水对产业发展约束程度的变化较稳定，且农业耗水对产业发展的约束程度较大，只有不断推进产业结构优化才是实现新疆可持续发展的有效路径。
為瞭揭示隨時間變化產業髮展受資源環境約束的規律，以新疆綠洲為例，基于變參數狀態空間模型，分析資源環境對產業髮展的約束。結果錶明，環境因子中工業廢氣排放對產業髮展的約束程度最彊。從產業結構調整的能源因子看，二產能源效率約束程度最大；從水資源因子看，農業耗水與非農業耗水對產業髮展約束程度的變化較穩定，且農業耗水對產業髮展的約束程度較大，隻有不斷推進產業結構優化纔是實現新疆可持續髮展的有效路徑。
위료게시수시간변화산업발전수자원배경약속적규률，이신강록주위례，기우변삼수상태공간모형，분석자원배경대산업발전적약속。결과표명，배경인자중공업폐기배방대산업발전적약속정도최강。종산업결구조정적능원인자간，이산능원효솔약속정도최대；종수자원인자간，농업모수여비농업모수대산업발전약속정도적변화교은정，차농업모수대산업발전적약속정도교대，지유불단추진산업결구우화재시실현신강가지속발전적유효로경。
In order to reveal the changing rules of resources environment constraint on industrial development over time, based on time - varying parameter state space model,taking Xinjiang Oasis as an example,this paper analyzes the resource and environmental constraint on industrial development empirically. The results show that:the strongest environmental con-straint factor on industrial development is industrial emissions. From the energy impact of industrial structure adjustment, the greatest constraint of energy consumption is the second industry. From the water resources,change is relatively stable for the constraint of agricultural water consumption and non agricultural water consumption on industry development,and agricultural water consumption has bigger constraint on industry development. Only continuing to optimize the industrial structure,can Xinjiang have effective ways to achieve sustainable development.
