CAJ | 학술논문

运用循序结构突变检验、变结构协整模型、Cusum 平方检验和 Theil 不等式系数分析出我国区域能源价格和碳排放强度的结构突变点，在考虑结构突变的情况下两者之间存在长期协整关系，且拟合能力更强。利用面板分位数回归模型分析表明：能源价格通过经济发展、经济结构、能源效率间接作用于碳排放强度。我国东、中部地区的经济发展对碳排放强度呈正影响，西部地区的经济发展对碳排放强度呈负影响，其中东部地区的经济发展对碳排放强度影响最大；各区域的经济结构对碳排放强度呈负影响，其中西部地区的经济结构对碳排放强度影响最大；能源效率对碳排放强度呈负影响，其中中部地区的能源效率对碳排放强度影响最大。
운용순서결구돌변검험、변결구협정모형、Cusum 평방검험화 Theil 불등식계수분석출아국구역능원개격화탄배방강도적결구돌변점，재고필결구돌변적정황하량자지간존재장기협정관계，차의합능력경강。이용면판분위수회귀모형분석표명：능원개격통과경제발전、경제결구、능원효솔간접작용우탄배방강도。아국동、중부지구적경제발전대탄배방강도정정영향，서부지구적경제발전대탄배방강도정부영향，기중동부지구적경제발전대탄배방강도영향최대；각구역적경제결구대탄배방강도정부영향，기중서부지구적경제결구대탄배방강도영향최대；능원효솔대탄배방강도정부영향，기중중부지구적능원효솔대탄배방강도영향최대。
The paper researches on structure mutation point of energy price and carbon emission intensity by sequential structure mutation test model,variable structure of co - integration model,Cusum square test and Theil inequality coeffi-cient on the eastern,central and western of China. It has long - term co - integration between them. Then,it found that the fitting ability of considering structure mutation is stronger. Then the paper uses panel data quartile regression model to obtain that energy price effects carbon emission intensity by intermediary variable. The result shows that energy price influ-ences on carbon emission intensity by three indicators. These are economic development,economic structure and energy ef-ficiency. Economic development has positive influence on carbon emission intensity in the eastern and central region,but the western has negative impact. It has the most important influence on eastern region. Their structure features are negative influence. It has the most important influence on western region. Their energy efficiency imposes negative influence,too. It has the most important influence on central region.