CAJ | 학술논문

粮食生产潜力中、长期预测的目的是为国家中、长期粮食生产规划提供科学依据。粮食生产潜力中、长期预测的“双向预测理论”：从若干个预测模型中选择出2个模型，一个模型预测的未来产量是持续增加的，体现产量持续增加的科技进步力量；另一个模型预测的未来产量是先增加后减少或持续减少的，体现影响产量持续增加的负面综合因素力量。应用结果表明：模型可预测未来1~10年的粮食生产潜力，平均预测误差在5％以内。大量案例证明粮食生产潜力中、长期预测的“双向预测理论”是科学的、方法是通用的、结果是实用的。
양식생산잠력중、장기예측적목적시위국가중、장기양식생산규화제공과학의거。양식생산잠력중、장기예측적“쌍향예측이론”：종약간개예측모형중선택출2개모형，일개모형예측적미래산량시지속증가적，체현산량지속증가적과기진보역량；령일개모형예측적미래산량시선증가후감소혹지속감소적，체현영향산량지속증가적부면종합인소역량。응용결과표명：모형가예측미래1~10년적양식생산잠력，평균예측오차재5％이내。대량안예증명양식생산잠력중、장기예측적“쌍향예측이론”시과학적、방법시통용적、결과시실용적。
The purpose of the long-term prediction of grain yield potential is to provide scientific basis for planning medium and long-term food production in China. The‘bidirectional prediction theory’of food production potential for medium and long-term is defined as follows:choosing two models from several prediction models, one model to predict the future output is increasing, which is an embodiment of science and technology, the other to predict the future output is increasing first and then decreasing or declining, which is reflected integrative nega-tive factors impact the yield increasing. The application results showed that the model could predict the grain yield potential in the future of 1 to 10 years, and the average error of prediction was less than 5%. The‘bidirectional prediction theory’of food production for medium and long-term was scientific, its method was universal, and the result was practical.