CAJ | 학술논문

根据常州近50 a的雷暴数据、近5 a的闪电数据和近10 a的雷灾资料，分析了雷暴和雷灾的相关性，结果表明：雷灾的发生不止与雷暴、闪电等自然因素有关，还可能与地区经济人口分布、区域雷电防护水平等人为因素有关；在雷击造成的损失中，电气和电子系统失效的损害占的比例最大，居民用户遭受雷灾的比重最大，这与各地区人们的防雷意识以及居民建筑防雷装置的完善程度有关。同时，结合实际情况，用7个指标（雷暴日数、雷击密度、雷电灾害频度、经济易损模数、生命易损模数、经济损伤模数和生命损伤模数）评价常州市雷电灾害的易损性。根据江苏省统计年鉴的常州各区县人口、面积和经济数据，采用层次分析法，分析得出常州市的雷灾易损性风险区划：高风险区（武进区）、较高风险区（天宁区、金坛市）、中风险区（钟楼区、戚墅堰区、溧阳市）和低风险区（新北区）。
근거상주근50 a적뇌폭수거、근5 a적섬전수거화근10 a적뢰재자료，분석료뇌폭화뢰재적상관성，결과표명：뢰재적발생불지여뇌폭、섬전등자연인소유관，환가능여지구경제인구분포、구역뇌전방호수평등인위인소유관；재뢰격조성적손실중，전기화전자계통실효적손해점적비례최대，거민용호조수뢰재적비중최대，저여각지구인문적방뢰의식이급거민건축방뢰장치적완선정도유관。동시，결합실제정황，용7개지표（뇌폭일수、뢰격밀도、뇌전재해빈도、경제역손모수、생명역손모수、경제손상모수화생명손상모수）평개상주시뇌전재해적역손성。근거강소성통계년감적상주각구현인구、면적화경제수거，채용층차분석법，분석득출상주시적뢰재역손성풍험구화：고풍험구（무진구）、교고풍험구（천저구、금단시）、중풍험구（종루구、척서언구、률양시）화저풍험구（신북구）。
The correlation between thunderstorm and lightning disaster is analyzed,based on thunderstorm data in past 60 years,lightning data in recent 5 years and lightning disasters in past 10 years of Changzhou. Results show that the occurrence of lightning disaster can not be solely attributed to natural factors like thunderstorm,flash;an-thropogenic factors like economic development,population density,and lightning protection level may also influence the occurrence and level of lightning disaster.In the loss caused by lightning,failure of electrical and electronic sys-tem accounts for the largest proportion.And the local residents are the most vulnerable to lightning disasters in all industries,which is associated with people?s indifference to lightning protection and short of lightning protection de-vice for residential buildings.Combined with actual situation,7 indexes are put forward to evaluate the lightning dis-aster vulnerability of Changzhou, including thunderstorm days, lightning density, lightning disaster frequency, eco-nomic development, population density, vulnerability of economy and population. Based on data about the population,area and economy in all districts of Changzhou from the statistical yearbook of Jiangsu,lightning disaster vulnerability risk of each district is calculated by analytic hierarchy method,and the risk zoning is classified as high risk area(Wujin district),relatively high risk area(Tianning district and Jintan city),middle risk area(Zhonglou district,Qishuyan district and Liyang city) and low risk area( Xinbei district) .