CAJ | 학술논문

根据2004-2012年以来安徽省环境污染排放量的统计数据，以 GDP 产值、废水排放总量及废气排放总量等数据，建立了环境库兹涅茨曲线模型，分析了 GDP 与污染物排放量之间增长关系、安徽省经济发展与环境污染之间的关系，踢除异常点后修正回归系数研究发现，安徽省环境库兹涅茨曲线上升阶段即处于倒 U 型曲线的左边部分，预测在未来的一段时间内随着安徽省的经济发展污染物的排放将会进一步加剧污染，并发现 GDP 与产业结构变动、第二产业/第三产业比例有密切联系。
근거2004-2012년이래안휘성배경오염배방량적통계수거，이 GDP 산치、폐수배방총량급폐기배방총량등수거，건립료배경고자열자곡선모형，분석료 GDP 여오염물배방량지간증장관계、안휘성경제발전여배경오염지간적관계，척제이상점후수정회귀계수연구발현，안휘성배경고자열자곡선상승계단즉처우도 U 형곡선적좌변부분，예측재미래적일단시간내수착안휘성적경제발전오염물적배방장회진일보가극오염，병발현 GDP 여산업결구변동、제이산업/제삼산업비례유밀절련계。
Based on the 2004-2012 statistical data of the environmental pollution emissions in Anhui province,this paper establishes an environmental Kuznets curve model with parameters of GDP, wastewater emissions,exhaust emissions,etc. It also analyzes the relationship between economic develop-ment and environmental pollution by associating GDP growth with pollutant emissions. Analysis is given in the regression model of the GDP and the pollutant emissions during 2004-2012. Corrected coefficient of regression study after elimination of abnormal points shows that the environmental Kuznets curve of Anhui province is in the rising phase. Therefore exacerbated pollution is foreseeable within a certain period of time as the economy of Anhui Province continues to develop and GDP is found to be closely related to in-dustrial restructuring and the ratio of secondary / tertiary industry.