CAJ | 학술논문

将石油消费量作为独立因素加入到C -D函数模型中，并将综合技术水平视为变量，利用协整分析、岭回归分析和格兰杰因果检验对西部地区1996-2011年的石油消费与经济增长计量关系做了实证分析。结果表明，在短期内经济增长与石油消费存在双向的格兰杰因果关系，此外，随着滞后期的增加，西部地区的经济增长能够促进石油的进一步消费。石油作为西部地区一种重要的能源要素，在短期内会继续支撑西部地区经济发展，因此，需要从提高石油利用率、建立石油消费预警机制、制定西部地区石油发展战略等方面实现石油消费与经济发展的双赢。
장석유소비량작위독립인소가입도C -D함수모형중，병장종합기술수평시위변량，이용협정분석、령회귀분석화격란걸인과검험대서부지구1996-2011년적석유소비여경제증장계량관계주료실증분석。결과표명，재단기내경제증장여석유소비존재쌍향적격란걸인과관계，차외，수착체후기적증가，서부지구적경제증장능구촉진석유적진일보소비。석유작위서부지구일충중요적능원요소，재단기내회계속지탱서부지구경제발전，인차，수요종제고석유이용솔、건립석유소비예경궤제、제정서부지구석유발전전략등방면실현석유소비여경제발전적쌍영。
With petroleum consumption as an independent factor to join the C-D production function model and comprehensive technical level as a variable ,an econometric analysis is done of the relationship between petroleum consumption and economic growth from 1996 to 2011 in West China by means of cointegration analysis ,ridge regression analysis and Granger causality test .The results indicate that a two-way Granger causality exists between economic growth and petroleum consumption in a short period . Furthermore , with the increase of lag phase , economic grow th may further promote the consumption of petroleum in this region .As an important element of energy in West China ,Petroleum will continue to support the economic development in this region .Therefore ,we can achieve a win-win between petroleum consumption and economic development by increasing the utilization of petroleum ,establishing an early warning mechanism about petroleum consumption ,and formulating the western petroleum development strategy and so on .