CAJ | 학술논문

从航空货运发展的实际出发，分析影响预报因子的因素，基于GDP、全社会固定资产投资和居民消费水平的影响因素，采用系统观点和类比方法，运用模糊数和多元回归等方法，从影响航空货运量的因素、样本的选取、模型的应用这三个主要环节入手，对民航货运量展开预测，结果表明建立的模糊回归理论模型具有很高的准确率，具有很强的现实意义和实际操作性。
종항공화운발전적실제출발，분석영향예보인자적인소，기우GDP、전사회고정자산투자화거민소비수평적영향인소，채용계통관점화류비방법，운용모호수화다원회귀등방법，종영향항공화운량적인소、양본적선취、모형적응용저삼개주요배절입수，대민항화운량전개예측，결과표명건립적모호회귀이론모형구유흔고적준학솔，구유흔강적현실의의화실제조작성。
In this paper, starting from the practice of the development of the aviation freight industry, we analyzed the factors influencing its forecasting factors, and then on the basis of GDP, total investment in fixed assets and resident consumption level, through analogue and from a system-based perspective, used the fuzzy number and multiple regression methods to forecast the freight volume through civil aviation, the result of which demonstrated that the fuzzy regression model established was of high accuracy and practicality.