CAJ | 학술논문

利用RegCM3模式对开都河流域2000-2006年夏季气候进行模拟，结果表明：模式对于流域夏季月降水总量和月平均气温的空间分布有较好的模拟能力。结合站点海拔高度值、实测值以及模拟量分别对降水、气温进行修正，并由此计算流域的面雨量和平均温度；结果表明开都河流域夏季面雨量与开都河同期实测径流量有较好的一致性，R2达到0．97。对开都河流域夏季平均气温、面雨量以及径流量的分析表明，降水是影响流域夏季径流量的主要影响因子；而气温对于径流呈现负贡献的原因可能由于对温度敏感的小冰川大大减少，致使径流量随着温度增加而增加的关系减弱。此外，气温升高导致流域蒸散量的提高，可能是气温呈现负贡献的又一原因。
이용RegCM3모식대개도하류역2000-2006년하계기후진행모의，결과표명：모식대우류역하계월강수총량화월평균기온적공간분포유교호적모의능력。결합참점해발고도치、실측치이급모의량분별대강수、기온진행수정，병유차계산류역적면우량화평균온도；결과표명개도하류역하계면우량여개도하동기실측경류량유교호적일치성，R2체도0．97。대개도하류역하계평균기온、면우량이급경류량적분석표명，강수시영향류역하계경류량적주요영향인자；이기온대우경류정현부공헌적원인가능유우대온도민감적소빙천대대감소，치사경류량수착온도증가이증가적관계감약。차외，기온승고도치류역증산량적제고，가능시기온정현부공헌적우일원인。
The regional climate model (RegCM3)is used to simulate the summer (June to August)climate from 2000 to 2006 over the Kaidu River Valley.The results reveal that the model has a good ability to re-produce the distribution of precipitation and temperature.The altitude,observed data and simulated data are used to revise the simulated temperature and precipitation,and then the areal rainfall and average tem-perature are calculated.It is proved that there is a good consistency between runoff and precipitation over the Kaidu River Basin,and R2 is 0.97.The analyses of the summer average temperature,areal rainfall and runoff show that the main impact factor of Kaidu River’s runoff is precipitation.The reason why tempera-ture makes a negative contribution to runoff is probably because of the reducing of the small and middle-sized glaciers,which causes the runoff to decrease and temperature to rise.The other reason maybe is the rise of temperature,which can lead to the increase of evapotranspiration.