气象
氣象
기상
METEOROLOGICAL MONTHLY
2014年
3期
313-326
,共14页
飞机增雨%数值模拟%效果评估
飛機增雨%數值模擬%效果評估
비궤증우%수치모의%효과평고
aircraft rain enhancement%numerical simulation%effect evaluation
利用国家气象中心GRAPES业务模式耦合混合相双参数云微物理方案，对2010年12月15日的两次飞机人工增雨作业过程进行了催化数值模拟分析。分析得出：GRAPES模式基本能给出正确的中低层天气形势场和降水的动力结构，较大降水的落区和范围基本可信，降水强度较实况偏小；按照作业实况进行催化模拟具有一定的可信度，与实况降水在较强降水区域有较好的对应性；两次播撒都取得了增加降雨量的效果，24 h 平均增雨量在3～5 mm，最大增雨量达7 mm，两次播撒后增雨作业区的累计降水总量较未播撒时增加约一倍；播撒有效时段在4h 内，播撒后1～2h 雨量增加最大，增雨区域初期与播撒区域一致，随时间延长而在播撒区附近扩散；第一次播撒时，播撒冰晶消耗液态水，转化成固态水，水汽流入速度加快，向液态水转化加快，液态水迅速恢复，未出现减雨现象；第二次播撒时，云中固态水争食水汽增长，液态水得不到补充，云中上升运动减弱，自然降水阶段出现减雨现象。
利用國傢氣象中心GRAPES業務模式耦閤混閤相雙參數雲微物理方案，對2010年12月15日的兩次飛機人工增雨作業過程進行瞭催化數值模擬分析。分析得齣：GRAPES模式基本能給齣正確的中低層天氣形勢場和降水的動力結構，較大降水的落區和範圍基本可信，降水彊度較實況偏小；按照作業實況進行催化模擬具有一定的可信度，與實況降水在較彊降水區域有較好的對應性；兩次播撒都取得瞭增加降雨量的效果，24 h 平均增雨量在3～5 mm，最大增雨量達7 mm，兩次播撒後增雨作業區的纍計降水總量較未播撒時增加約一倍；播撒有效時段在4h 內，播撒後1～2h 雨量增加最大，增雨區域初期與播撒區域一緻，隨時間延長而在播撒區附近擴散；第一次播撒時，播撒冰晶消耗液態水，轉化成固態水，水汽流入速度加快，嚮液態水轉化加快，液態水迅速恢複，未齣現減雨現象；第二次播撒時，雲中固態水爭食水汽增長，液態水得不到補充，雲中上升運動減弱，自然降水階段齣現減雨現象。
이용국가기상중심GRAPES업무모식우합혼합상쌍삼수운미물리방안，대2010년12월15일적량차비궤인공증우작업과정진행료최화수치모의분석。분석득출：GRAPES모식기본능급출정학적중저층천기형세장화강수적동력결구，교대강수적락구화범위기본가신，강수강도교실황편소；안조작업실황진행최화모의구유일정적가신도，여실황강수재교강강수구역유교호적대응성；량차파살도취득료증가강우량적효과，24 h 평균증우량재3～5 mm，최대증우량체7 mm，량차파살후증우작업구적루계강수총량교미파살시증가약일배；파살유효시단재4h 내，파살후1～2h 우량증가최대，증우구역초기여파살구역일치，수시간연장이재파살구부근확산；제일차파살시，파살빙정소모액태수，전화성고태수，수기류입속도가쾌，향액태수전화가쾌，액태수신속회복，미출현감우현상；제이차파살시，운중고태수쟁식수기증장，액태수득불도보충，운중상승운동감약，자연강수계단출현감우현상。
Using the GRAPES model which incorporates a new two-moment microphysical scheme,two aircraft artificial precipitation processes that happened in Chongqing on 15 December 2010 are simulated and analyzed.The results show that GRAPES model is able to simulate the real synoptic situation of medi-um,the precipitation area is credibility,but the intensity is small.Seeding simulation has good correspon-dence with the observed rainfall in heavier precipitation areas.Seeding twice leads to the increasing of pre-cipitation,the 24 h average enhancement rainfall is 3-5 mm and the maximum amount is 7 mm.The 24 h accumulative total precipitation of seeding is double times than no seeding in seeding area.Obvious en-hancement result is seen in 1-2 hours after seeding,and the rain enhancement continues about 4 hours. At the beginning the area of enhancement is the same as the seeding area,spreading near the seeding area with the time.After the first seeding,the liquid water is quickly transformed into solid water by seeding ice crystal,and the vapor inflow accelerates changing into liquid water,so the liquid water quickly restore. There is no rain reduced.After the second seeding,the solid water increases by vapor transforming,the supplement of liquid water is poor,the ascending motion of clouds decreases,and the rainfall is reduced at the stage of natural precipitation.
