CAJ | 학술논문

分析了形成旱灾风险的有关因素,表明旱灾风险不仅与缺雨程度及持续时间有关,而且还有明显的季节性差异。用单位评价期内的降水距平百分率反映缺雨程度,用作物和生态系统不同季节的缺雨敏感度反映干旱影响的季节性差异,并以干旱持续期内单位时段旱灾风险的累加反映其累积效应,从而建立起旱灾风险的识别指数。应用旱灾风险指数对60年来内蒙古的旱灾风险进行了初步评估。给出了各级旱灾发生的概率,并统计出及各级旱灾对应的后果。对影响范围大、跨经两个以上作物生长年份、最大旱灾风险指数双倍于特旱的极端干旱在内蒙古的发生情况进行了分析。结果表明,20世纪80年代中期以来,内蒙古的极端干旱过程在逐渐东扩,内蒙古东部地区的旱灾出现了增多增强的趋势。
분석료형성한재풍험적유관인소,표명한재풍험불부여결우정도급지속시간유관,이차환유명현적계절성차이。용단위평개기내적강수거평백분솔반영결우정도,용작물화생태계통불동계절적결우민감도반영간한영향적계절성차이,병이간한지속기내단위시단한재풍험적루가반영기루적효응,종이건립기한재풍험적식별지수。응용한재풍험지수대60년래내몽고적한재풍험진행료초보평고。급출료각급한재발생적개솔,병통계출급각급한재대응적후과。대영향범위대、과경량개이상작물생장년빈、최대한재풍험지수쌍배우특한적겁단간한재내몽고적발생정황진행료분석。결과표명,20세기80년대중기이래,내몽고적겁단간한과정재축점동확,내몽고동부지구적한재출현료증다증강적추세。
It is indicated that drought risk is related to the lack of rain level and duration of rain via analyzing the relevant factors of the risk of drought. The impact of drought have the cumulative effect and obvious seasonal variations .In order to establish the identi- fication index of drought risk, lack of rain level is reflected by the percentage of the rainfall anomaly, sensitivity of the lack of rain to crops and ecosystem in different seasons reflects seasonal variations of effects of drought, accumulating the drought risk in unit time during the drought period reflects it＇s accumulative effects. A preliminary assessment for drought risk in Inner Mongolia over past 60 years has conducted in the support of application of drought risk index. In this article has given probabilities of drought occurrences at all levels and all corresponding consequences of drought events. Through analyzing extreme drought in Inner Mongolia with broad influenced range, across more than two crop growth years and the maximum drought risk index is as much as two times of severe drought, the results show that extreme drought process of Inner Mongolia has gradually eastward expanded and the eastern region of Inner Mongolia has appeared the trend of increasing drought since the mid-1980s .