山东财政学院学报
山東財政學院學報
산동재정학원학보
JOURNAI OF SHANDONG FINANCE INSTITUTE(BIMONTHLY)
2012年
3期
31-39
,共9页
通货膨胀%实证检验%因子分析
通貨膨脹%實證檢驗%因子分析
통화팽창%실증검험%인자분석
inflation%empirical test%factor analysis
2010-2011年我国通货膨胀的成因是多方面的。总体而言,主要包括大宗商品带来的外部输入因素、逆经济风向的相机抉择机制引致的内部政策因素、经济转型升级过程中的成本推动因素以及未来预期因素。选取6个指标,运用因子分析进行实证检验,得出了＂外部输入因素、内部政策因素、成本推动因素、未来预期因素对本轮通货膨胀的贡献为83.97%＂的结论。为此,我国应制定科学合理的防通货膨胀政策,特别是要考虑到经济转型升级过程中的成本推动因素,以促进我国经济高速平稳发展。
2010-2011年我國通貨膨脹的成因是多方麵的。總體而言,主要包括大宗商品帶來的外部輸入因素、逆經濟風嚮的相機抉擇機製引緻的內部政策因素、經濟轉型升級過程中的成本推動因素以及未來預期因素。選取6箇指標,運用因子分析進行實證檢驗,得齣瞭＂外部輸入因素、內部政策因素、成本推動因素、未來預期因素對本輪通貨膨脹的貢獻為83.97%＂的結論。為此,我國應製定科學閤理的防通貨膨脹政策,特彆是要攷慮到經濟轉型升級過程中的成本推動因素,以促進我國經濟高速平穩髮展。
2010-2011년아국통화팽창적성인시다방면적。총체이언,주요포괄대종상품대래적외부수입인소、역경제풍향적상궤결택궤제인치적내부정책인소、경제전형승급과정중적성본추동인소이급미래예기인소。선취6개지표,운용인자분석진행실증검험,득출료＂외부수입인소、내부정책인소、성본추동인소、미래예기인소대본륜통화팽창적공헌위83.97%＂적결론。위차,아국응제정과학합리적방통화팽창정책,특별시요고필도경제전형승급과정중적성본추동인소,이촉진아국경제고속평은발전。
There are various causes for China＇ s inflation from 2010 to 2011, which mainly include external input factors brought by bulk commodity; internal policy factors brought by discretion mechanism contradictive to economic wind ; cost - push factors in the process of economic transformation and upgrading, and anticipated factors in future. This paper makes an empirical test on six indicators selected through factor analysis, drawing the conclusion that the above mentioned four groups of factors have contributed to 83.97% of the inflation. Therefore, the government of China should establish scientific and reasonable anti-inflation policies in order to develop its economy in a high-speed and steady way, specifically putting cost-push factors in the process of the economic transformation and upgrading into consideration.
