CAJ | 학술논문

文章应用新一代天气雷达资料,并结合天气图、T-logp图等资料,对发生于2011年6月13日内蒙古西部巴彦淖尔市东部地区的一次局地强对流天气过程进行了分析。通过分析雷达冰雹概率、垂直累积含水量、回波顶高、风暴追踪信息等产品以及自动站天气实况等发现,用于短时临近预报的雷达冰雹概率及风暴追踪信息产品在该次强对流天气过程中与天气实况并不能很好地符合。其原因：一方面与雷达对风暴的跟踪和SCIT算法有关,另一方面表明天气背景以及短时强对流天气所具有局地性特点在短时临近预报中未能充分考虑。通过该个例的分析,对于业务人员认识本地区的强对流天气发生特点并提高预报准确率具有重要意义。
문장응용신일대천기뢰체자료,병결합천기도、T-logp도등자료,대발생우2011년6월13일내몽고서부파언뇨이시동부지구적일차국지강대류천기과정진행료분석。통과분석뢰체빙박개솔、수직루적함수량、회파정고、풍폭추종신식등산품이급자동참천기실황등발현,용우단시림근예보적뢰체빙박개솔급풍폭추종신식산품재해차강대류천기과정중여천기실황병불능흔호지부합。기원인：일방면여뢰체대풍폭적근종화SCIT산법유관,령일방면표명천기배경이급단시강대류천기소구유국지성특점재단시림근예보중미능충분고필。통과해개례적분석,대우업무인원인식본지구적강대류천기발생특점병제고예보준학솔구유중요의의。
Based on the new generation Doppler weather radar data, synoptic charts and T lnp chart, a local severe convective weather occurred in the eastern part of the Bayannaoer district of western Inner Mongoha on June 13, 2011 is investigated. By analyzing the hail probabihty, VIL （Vertical Integrated Liquid）, height of echo top, storm tracking and AWS real weather, it can be found that the products of radar hail probability and storm tracking for nowcasting do not agree with the real weather very well. These dis- agreements, on one hand, are related to the algorithms of radar storm tracking and SCIT. On the other hand, they are caused by not taking into account the synoptic patterns and local severe weather features in nowcasting practice. Through the case study, it is crucial for operational personnel to knowledge the local severe weather features in this area and to improve the accuracy of nowcasting.