CAJ | 학술논문

针对航母与突击潜艇之间作战问题的复杂性，以及航母可生存性评估的重要性，提出一种基于概率统计的突击潜艇对航母可生存性影响评估方法。对航母与突击潜艇对抗作战流程进行描述，分析对抗过程中的关键事件，定义相关的描述变量；对航母可生存概率、航母受多次攻击的概率和突击潜艇毁伤数量期望等描述对抗效能的计算公式进行推导，并通过实例进行仿真分析。仿真结果表明，提升航母编队反潜力量的作战能力以及自身的防护能力是提升航母可生存性的关键。
침대항모여돌격잠정지간작전문제적복잡성，이급항모가생존성평고적중요성，제출일충기우개솔통계적돌격잠정대항모가생존성영향평고방법。대항모여돌격잠정대항작전류정진행묘술，분석대항과정중적관건사건，정의상관적묘술변량；대항모가생존개솔、항모수다차공격적개솔화돌격잠정훼상수량기망등묘술대항효능적계산공식진행추도，병통과실례진행방진분석。방진결과표명，제승항모편대반잠역량적작전능력이급자신적방호능력시제승항모가생존성적관건。
Aiming at the complex situation of battle between aircraft carrier and strike submarine and importance of aircraft carrier survivability evaluation, put forwards a survivability evaluation method of aircraft carrier attacked by strike submarine based on probability statistics. Firstly, describe the battle process between aircraft carrier and strike submarine, analyze key event in confrontation and define the relative description variable. Secondly, the mathematical derivations of the probability of survivability of carrier aircraft, probability of carrier aircraft suffered many times successful attacks, the expected number of submarines killed up is given. Finally a type example is given, computational results show that the anti-submarine capability of anti-submarine system and the defend capability of carrier aircraft is the key to promote the survivability of carrier aircraft.