铜陵学院学报
銅陵學院學報
동릉학원학보
JOURNAL OF TONGLING COLLEGE
2014年
1期
106-109
,共4页
风速预测%自适应支持向量机%混沌时间序列%相空间重构
風速預測%自適應支持嚮量機%混沌時間序列%相空間重構
풍속예측%자괄응지지향량궤%혼돈시간서렬%상공간중구
wind speed forecasting%self adaptive support vector machine%chaotic time series%phase space reconstruction
风速具有较强的随机性和间歇性，导致大规模风电接入电网会严重影响电力系统的安全稳定运行以及电能质量。较为准确的风速预测可以降低风能对电网的不利影响，为电网运行调度提供可靠的依据。在对风速进行混沌属性分析及相空间重构的基础上，采用自适应支持向量机进行短期风速预测，结果表明该方法的预测精度高于BP、RBF等预测模型。
風速具有較彊的隨機性和間歇性，導緻大規模風電接入電網會嚴重影響電力繫統的安全穩定運行以及電能質量。較為準確的風速預測可以降低風能對電網的不利影響，為電網運行調度提供可靠的依據。在對風速進行混沌屬性分析及相空間重構的基礎上，採用自適應支持嚮量機進行短期風速預測，結果錶明該方法的預測精度高于BP、RBF等預測模型。
풍속구유교강적수궤성화간헐성，도치대규모풍전접입전망회엄중영향전력계통적안전은정운행이급전능질량。교위준학적풍속예측가이강저풍능대전망적불리영향，위전망운행조도제공가고적의거。재대풍속진행혼돈속성분석급상공간중구적기출상，채용자괄응지지향량궤진행단기풍속예측，결과표명해방법적예측정도고우BP、RBF등예측모형。
The wind is strong random and intermittent, which leads to large scale wind power integration will seriously affect the safe and stable operation of power system and power quality. Wind speed and more accurate prediction can reduce the adverse impact of wind power on the grid, and provide reliable basis for power griddispatching. Based on the chaotic property analysis of wind speed and phase space reconstruction, using adaptive short-term wind speed forecasting support vector machine, the results indicate that the prediction accuracy of this method is higher than that of BP, RBF prediction model.
