CAJ | 학술논문

重大自然灾害中灾害链对灾情的巨大放大、累加作用,使灾害链研究备受关注。基于灾害系统理论,以中国汶川＂5.12＂地震灾害和日本福岛＂3.11＂地震灾害为例进行了地震灾害链梳理和区域对比,并探讨了不同灾害系统下,孕灾环境和承灾体对灾害链致灾成灾的影响。通过构建承灾体脆弱性与灾情累积关系的概念模型,阐述了灾害链对灾情的放大机制。研究表明：汶川地震具有陆地山区灾害链特征,主要灾害链为地震→崩塌/滑坡→（泥石流→）堰塞湖灾害链和地震→结构破坏→设施受损灾害链;日本地震具有海洋岛屿灾害链特征,主要灾害链为地震→海啸→核事故灾害链、地震→（海啸→）结构破坏→火灾/生命线系统损毁灾害链和地震→滑坡/火山/水库溃坝灾害链等;两场地震灾害中灾害链的成因及灾害链对灾情的放大过程差异显著;福岛地震灾害链危害巨大,使灾情在其他相关国家放大。
중대자연재해중재해련대재정적거대방대、루가작용,사재해련연구비수관주。기우재해계통이론,이중국문천＂5.12＂지진재해화일본복도＂3.11＂지진재해위례진행료지진재해련소리화구역대비,병탐토료불동재해계통하,잉재배경화승재체대재해련치재성재적영향。통과구건승재체취약성여재정루적관계적개념모형,천술료재해련대재정적방대궤제。연구표명：문천지진구유륙지산구재해련특정,주요재해련위지진→붕탑/활파→（니석류→）언새호재해련화지진→결구파배→설시수손재해련;일본지진구유해양도서재해련특정,주요재해련위지진→해소→핵사고재해련、지진→（해소→）결구파배→화재/생명선계통손훼재해련화지진→활파/화산/수고궤패재해련등;량장지진재해중재해련적성인급재해련대재정적방대과정차이현저;복도지진재해련위해거대,사재정재기타상관국가방대。
Based on the disaster system theory,this paper took two earthquake disasters,the 12 May Wenchuan earthquake in China and the 11 March Tohoku earthquake in Japan,as examples— to study the earthquake disaster chains.Then,those chains were compared to analyze their effects on cumulative losses.A concept model was developed about the relation between vulnerability and loss to explain earthquake chains’ magnified effect on loss.The conclusions are： in the Wenchuan earthquake disaster,the main chains include the earthquake →landslide（→debris flow）→quake lake chain and the earthquake →structural damage → facilities damage chain;in the Tohoku Earthquake,the main chains are the earthquake→tsunami→nuclear accident chain,the earthquake（→tsunami）→fire/lifeline systems paralysis chain and the earthquake→landslides / soil liquefaction / subsidence / volcano chain.These two earthquake disasters have significant differences in both the factors that lead to the earthquake chains and the cumulative amplification effects on losses through disaster chains.Earthquake chains make the Tohoku earthquake magnified in other related countries.