CAJ | 학술논문

利用1970--2009年三门峡40a逐日雷暴观测资料，采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall法、小波分析，对三门峡市雷暴变化特征及突变情况进行了分析。结果表明：三门峡市年平均雷暴日数达16．5个，高发季节为每年6—8月，高发时段为14—21时；年雷暴日数年代际线性变化呈下降趋势，气候倾向率为0．5个／10a。Mann-Kendall法检验显示，雷暴总体上呈减少趋势，没有发生突变。从小波分析的结果看，三门峡市雷暴日序列具有3、6a的短周期和8、14a的长周期振荡变化，其中以6a和8a振荡周期为主要特征。
이용1970--2009년삼문협40a축일뇌폭관측자료，채용선성경향고계、Mann-Kendall법、소파분석，대삼문협시뇌폭변화특정급돌변정황진행료분석。결과표명：삼문협시년평균뇌폭일수체16．5개，고발계절위매년6—8월，고발시단위14—21시；년뇌폭일수년대제선성변화정하강추세，기후경향솔위0．5개／10a。Mann-Kendall법검험현시，뇌폭총체상정감소추세，몰유발생돌변。종소파분석적결과간，삼문협시뇌폭일서렬구유3、6a적단주기화8、14a적장주기진탕변화，기중이6a화8a진탕주기위주요특정。
Based on the 40 years observational data of thunderstorm from 1970 to 2009 in Sanmenxia, the characteristics and mutation of thunderstorm variation are analyzed by using some methods such as linear trend estimate, Mann-Kendall and wavelet analysis. The results show that the average annual thun- derstorm days in Sanmenxia is 16.5 days, high occurrence time of thunderstorm is June to August for the year and 14：00 to 21：00 for the day. Decadal linearly changes of thunderstorm days decreased and climate tendency rate is approximately 0.5/10a. Mann-Kendall test shows that thunderstorm has a decreasing tendency on the whole and no mutation. The results from wavelet analysis show that the variation period of annual thunderstorm days in Sanmenxia is about the short periods of 3 and 6 years and the long periods of 8 and 14 years, thereinto, the variation period of 6 and 8 years are the main characteristics.