CAJ | 학술논문

文章以全球75个国家的股票市场指数为研究样本,根据指数的编制原则,采用派许指数和简单平均的计算方法,提出变化率的指数设计方法,分别设计出亚太地区、美洲地区、欧洲地区的股票价格指数,并以这三个地区为样本,编制出世界股票市场统一指数。最后实证检验了世界股票指数与各地区主要股票指数的相关性,运用Granger因果检验世界股价指数与世界GDP的因果关系,结果表明＂世界股市是世界国民经济的‘晴雨表’＂的结论。
문장이전구75개국가적고표시장지수위연구양본,근거지수적편제원칙,채용파허지수화간단평균적계산방법,제출변화솔적지수설계방법,분별설계출아태지구、미주지구、구주지구적고표개격지수,병이저삼개지구위양본,편제출세계고표시장통일지수。최후실증검험료세계고표지수여각지구주요고표지수적상관성,운용Granger인과검험세계고개지수여세계GDP적인과관계,결과표명＂세계고시시세계국민경제적‘청우표’＂적결론。
In this paper, making the seventy-five countries as simples, we first use computing methods of Passche weighted and simple average to present an index design method of change rate based on formation principle of index, and then work out stock price indexes of Asia-Pacific, America and Europe, respectively. We draw up a unified index of global stock market according to the three regions. Finally, we empirically make a analysis of the correlation, between world stock index and region stock index. We use Granger causality method to test the causal relationship between world stock index and GDP. The results indicate that world stock market is the ＂barometer＂ of world＇ national economy.