CAJ | 학술논문

运用时变参数模型,从三次产业对经济增长的拉动作用的角度,对三次产业与经济增长之间的动态关系进行了实证研究。结果表明：虽然近几年第三产业产值及其占比的增长速度均很快,但第三产业对经济增长的拉动作用不明显,落后于第二产业。最后,结合我国产业结构的特点,提出提高消费性服务业产值比重、加快第三产业内部结构的升级等建议,强调在努力提高第三产业产值比重的同时,更应注重提高第三产业的效率,由此才能实现经济的长期稳定增长。
운용시변삼수모형,종삼차산업대경제증장적랍동작용적각도,대삼차산업여경제증장지간적동태관계진행료실증연구。결과표명：수연근궤년제삼산업산치급기점비적증장속도균흔쾌,단제삼산업대경제증장적랍동작용불명현,락후우제이산업。최후,결합아국산업결구적특점,제출제고소비성복무업산치비중、가쾌제삼산업내부결구적승급등건의,강조재노력제고제삼산업산치비중적동시,경응주중제고제삼산업적효솔,유차재능실현경제적장기은정증장。
This paper uses a time varying parameter model to analyze empirically the dynamic relationship between industrial structure and economic growth.The result shows that,although the output and proportion of third industry have been growing rapidly in recent years,the efficiency of it is not obvious,which is behind second industry.According to the characteristics of China＇s economic structure,it puts forward some suggestions,such as raising the proportion of output value of consumer service sector,speeding up the upgrading of third industry structure.And it points out that,more attention should be paid to raising the efficiency of third industry when increasing the proportion of the third industry in order achieve the long-term stable economic growth.