CAJ | 학술논문

国内外光伏发电成本一直高于传统发电成本或者销售电价为了实现光伏发电的低价上网，需了解如何降低光伏发电成本以及光伏发电成本下降的潜力，探求中远期光伏成本下降潜力，为政府和企业提供决策依据。通过开发基于全寿命周期成本结构的自底向上模型，分析出在主要驱动因素作用下2020年前我国光伏发电成本下降潜力得出光伏发电将在部分地区平价上网的结论，光伏发电成本还应进一步降低，才能规模化应用和可持续发展；技术创新可对光伏成本下降做出较大贡献
국내외광복발전성본일직고우전통발전성본혹자소수전개위료실현광복발전적저개상망，수료해여하강저광복발전성본이급광복발전성본하강적잠력，탐구중원기광복성본하강잠력，위정부화기업제공결책의거。통과개발기우전수명주기성본결구적자저향상모형，분석출재주요구동인소작용하2020년전아국광복발전성본하강잠력득출광복발전장재부분지구평개상망적결론，광복발전성본환응진일보강저，재능규모화응용화가지속발전；기술창신가대광복성본하강주출교대공헌
The cost of photovoltaic （PV） power generation has always been higher than the cost of conventional power generation or the sales price of electricity both at home and abroad. To realize the integration of the PV power with the power grid at a lower price, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of the possible measures to be taken to reduce the PV cost and the potential of the cost reduction. This study explores the cost reduction potential of the PV power generation in China to provide the decision-making basis for the government and businesses. The paper creates a bottom-up model based on the whole lifecycle cost so as to identify the PV cost reduction potential in China betbre 2020 that will be realized by major driving factors. It is concluded that the PV power and the conventional power will reach parity in price in parts of China by 2020, while the cost of the PV power generation should be further reduced to realize large scale application and sustainable development. Technological innovations will play a key role in the cost reduction.