才智
纔智
재지
CAIZHI
2013年
23期
242-243,244
,共3页
粮食需求数量%相关分析%预测模型
糧食需求數量%相關分析%預測模型
양식수구수량%상관분석%예측모형
grain consumption%correlationanalysis%prediction model
由于我国粮食消费数量缺乏公开的政府统计数据，实际研究中存在着采集难度大，准确性差；作者将粮食消费按照食用消费和非食用消费进行分类，基于非食用消费数量相对稳定，通过分析食用消费数量与居民年均人收入增长率的关系，建立我国粮食消费数量预测模型。研究结果表明，预测模型的拟合度等统计指标高度显著，其对未来的预测准确性有待时间检验。
由于我國糧食消費數量缺乏公開的政府統計數據，實際研究中存在著採集難度大，準確性差；作者將糧食消費按照食用消費和非食用消費進行分類，基于非食用消費數量相對穩定，通過分析食用消費數量與居民年均人收入增長率的關繫，建立我國糧食消費數量預測模型。研究結果錶明，預測模型的擬閤度等統計指標高度顯著，其對未來的預測準確性有待時間檢驗。
유우아국양식소비수량결핍공개적정부통계수거，실제연구중존재착채집난도대，준학성차；작자장양식소비안조식용소비화비식용소비진행분류，기우비식용소비수량상대은정，통과분석식용소비수량여거민년균인수입증장솔적관계，건립아국양식소비수량예측모형。연구결과표명，예측모형적의합도등통계지표고도현저，기대미래적예측준학성유대시간검험。
Because of the lack of official statistics on grain consumption, the statistics strenuously collected is not accurate enough when doing researches. In this essay grain consumption is classified into food consumption and non-food consumption. Since the annual amount of non-food consumption is relatively stable, we can establish a grain consumption prediction model to analyze the relationship between food consumption amount and the growth rate of annual revenue of residents in China. The study shows the indexes of the prediction model including goodness of fit are highly significant; however, its accuracy of predicting the future is to be tested.
