CAJ | 학술논문

　　为明确影响广东省稻飞虱发生的关键气象因子和关键时段，为地方政府及相关部门提供稻飞虱危害预测预警。采用相关分析法对广东省1992—2009年水稻稻飞虱发生面积率与同期地面气象因子进行研究，采用两段最小二乘法、曲线回归方法分别建立6、9月份广东省稻飞虱发生面积率长期预测模型。结果表明：稻飞虱发生的关键时段是6、9月份，关键因子是6月份温雨系数、大雨日数、平均风速＜5 m/s的日数；9月份平均气温、平均风速＜5 m/s的日数。稻飞虱发生等级模型预报准确率为83%，2010年发生等级预报结果正确，预报效果较好，能够满足业务服务的需要。
　　위명학영향광동성도비슬발생적관건기상인자화관건시단，위지방정부급상관부문제공도비슬위해예측예경。채용상관분석법대광동성1992—2009년수도도비슬발생면적솔여동기지면기상인자진행연구，채용량단최소이승법、곡선회귀방법분별건립6、9월빈광동성도비슬발생면적솔장기예측모형。결과표명：도비슬발생적관건시단시6、9월빈，관건인자시6월빈온우계수、대우일수、평균풍속＜5 m/s적일수；9월빈평균기온、평균풍속＜5 m/s적일수。도비슬발생등급모형예보준학솔위83%，2010년발생등급예보결과정학，예보효과교호，능구만족업무복무적수요。
To ascertain the key meteorological factors and their periods of influencing rice planthopper occurrence levels and provide early warning for local government and related departments in Guangdong Province, the relation between the rice planthopper occurrence areas and corresponding surface meteorological data from 1992 to 2009 was researched by correlation analysis method, and the long-term predicting models of rice planthopper occurrence levels were constructed by least-squares method and curve regression in June and September. The results indicated that June and September were the key periods of rice planthopper occurrence. Key meteorological factors included the ratio of precipitation to air temperature, heavy rain days, days of average wind speed<5 m/s in June, and average temperature, days of average wind speed<5 m/s in September. The accuracy of rice planthopper occurrence level models was 83%, and prediction of rice planthopper occurrence level was correct in 2010. The prediction models had high prediction accuracy and could satisfy the needs of operational services.