CAJ | 학술논문

物流业是漳州市“十二五”规划发展的主导产业，物流量预测对推动漳州经济快速发展，提高城市综合竞争力等具有重要实际意义。采用多元逐步回归分析的方法，借助专业统计软件，对漳州市11年13个指标进行分析，得到最优回归预测方程。通过预测值与实际值的拟合图及2012年数据代入的实证分析，说明预测方程可信度很高，在城市规划发展决策中可应用。最后根据预测模型中显著影响因素提出漳州市物流业发展策略和建议并形成结论。
물류업시장주시“십이오”규화발전적주도산업，물류량예측대추동장주경제쾌속발전，제고성시종합경쟁력등구유중요실제의의。채용다원축보회귀분석적방법，차조전업통계연건，대장주시11년13개지표진행분석，득도최우회귀예측방정。통과예측치여실제치적의합도급2012년수거대입적실증분석，설명예측방정가신도흔고，재성시규화발전결책중가응용。최후근거예측모형중현저영향인소제출장주시물류업발전책략화건의병형성결론。
The logistics industry is one of the leading industries drew up by the 12th Five Year Plan of Zhangzhou city. Logistics amount prediction has an important practical significance to promote Zhangzhou economic rapid development and to improve the city's comprehensive competitiveness. With the help of the professional statistical software, the article analyzed 13 indexes in 11 years of Zhangzhou and formed the optimal regression equation by stepwise regression analysis method. It can be used in city planning and development decisions with high reliability by the empirical analysis fed into 2012’ data and the fitting chart of the predictive and the actual. Finally, according to the factors with significant influence in the prediction model, the writer proposed the development strategy of logistics industry in Zhangzhou city and conclusions.